Trump’s 401(k) crypto order could be bigger than spot ETFs originally appeared on TheStreet.
President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order on Aug.7 allowing cryptocurrencies and other alternative assets like private equity and real estate to be included in 401(k) retirement plans, and some say this move could dwarf the impact of last year’s spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
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“This is WAY WAY BIGGER news than the ETFs,” said Tom Dunleavy, Head of Venture at Varys Capital, in a post on X. He explains why this could flood the crypto market with persistent buy pressure.
Dunleavy, formerly an analyst at Messari, argues that crypto’s inclusion in 401(k) plans — the employer-sponsored retirement accounts held by over 100 million Americans — could radically change the game.
“In the US, roughly 100 million Americans have a retirement investment vehicle known as a 401(k). Every 2 weeks, a portion of their paychecks are routed directly into purchasing a mixture of stocks and bonds,” Dunleavy wrote. “On autopilot. No discretion, just direct purchases based on their predefined allocations.”
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Powered by Money.com – Yahoo may earn commission from the links above.In aggregate, U.S. 401(k) plans hold about $12 trillion, with around $50 billion flowing in every two weeks, according to Dunleavy.
At even a modest 1% allocation to crypto, that’s $120 billion in fresh inflows. A 3% allocation? That’s $360 billion. And 5%? A staggering $600 billion — and it keeps coming.
“These aren’t one-time flows. THEY KEEP BUYING ONCE ALLOCATIONS ARE SET,” he wrote.
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Dunleavy is Head of Venture at Varys Capital, a digital asset investment firm focused on early-stage projects and infrastructure. He’s known for making bold macro calls on crypto adoption.
He summed up the potential impact of this shift with:
“401ks + DATs w/ at-the-money shelves put a ridiculous floor of crypto going forward and move the limit from the moon to Jupiter.”
In short: the baseline bid from 401(k)s could become the most powerful structural force in crypto markets — and unlike ETFs, these flows are consistent, automated, and growing.
The first spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved by the SEC in January 2024, with names like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest entering the market. They sparked $15 billion in net inflows within the first five months, according to Farside data.
A Bitcoin spot ETF is a type of investment fund traded on stock exchanges that directly holds Bitcoin as its underlying asset. It allows traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without needing to own or store the cryptocurrency themselves.
That was a big moment — but it pales in comparison to what 401(k) allocations could do.
While ETFs require active investor decisions and brokerage setup, 401(k) allocations are largely passive. Workers often pick an allocation once and forget about it. That creates long-term, compounding buying pressure — unlike ETFs, where inflows can be volatile.
According to Farside data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen over $53.7 billion in total inflows since launch, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading at $57.2 billion. Grayscale’s GBTC, however, saw $23.7 billion in outflows, pulling down the overall net. Bitwise’s BITB, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Ark’s ARKB follow with inflows of $2.3 billion, $12 billion, and $2.3 billion respectively.
Ryan Rasmussen, analyst at Bitwise Asset Management, had predicted this shift last December.
“The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance against crypto in 401(k) plans, enabling billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets,” he posted on Dec. 11, 2024.
“If crypto captures 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion of new capital entering the space and a steady flow thereafter.”
That prediction now appears to be coming true.
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Trump’s executive order is directed at the Department of Labor. The order will instruct the DOL to redefine and reevaluate guidance around alternative assets like crypto under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.
Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer is expected to work with the Treasury Department, SEC, and other agencies to implement the rule. The SEC is also expected to help define how private assets like crypto can be added to retirement plans.
The move not only legitimizes crypto as a long-term asset class, but structurally embeds it into the biggest capital engine in the U.S. economy.
For a market that’s still under $2 trillion in total value, even a small percentage of 401(k) exposure could dramatically reshape price dynamics and volatility.
Crypto ETFs opened the floodgates. 401(k)s could build a dam that constantly pours capital in — whether markets are up or down.
As Dunleavy puts it, this could set a permanent floor for crypto — and the ceiling? “From the moon to Jupiter.”
Trump’s 401(k) crypto order could be bigger than spot ETFs first appeared on TheStreet on Aug 7, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 7, 2025, where it first appeared.
