Truckload earnings estimates cut heading into Q3 reports

Susquehanna Financial Group cut earnings estimates for asset-based truckload carriers by mid-single- to low-double-digit percentages ahead of the third-quarter earnings season. Analyst Bascome Majors made similar reductions for the fourth quarter as volumes, spot rates and tender rejections remain soft, and the outlook for peak season is muted.

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“With 2026 now just three months away and our view that the truckload market is (again) unlikely to see the upward price and margin momentum we’ve been hoping for near term, we’re cutting our forecasts for most truckload-related names and are below 2026 consensus EPS for every company but CHRW [C.H. Robinson],” Majors told clients in a Wednesday report.

Third-quarter earnings-per-share estimates were cut by 12% and 11% for Schneider National (NYSE: SNDR) and Werner Enterprises (NASDAQ: WERN), respectively. Numbers were trimmed by just 6% for J.B. Hunt Transport Services (NASDAQ: JBHT) and 5% for Knight-Swift Transportation (NYSE: KNX).

(Majors’ new estimates sit 46% below the current consensus outlook for Werner, 14% below for Schneider, and only 3% below for J.B. Hunt and Knight-Swift.)

“As 3Q comes to a close, our sense is the 3Q supply-chain snap-back was modest in TL, just as TL-related transports avoided the worst post-‘Liberation Day’ scenarios in 2Q,” Majors said.

He believes July was the peak for container imports and noted concerns around consumer spending through the holiday season. “Until macroeconomic conditions and trade policy become more certain, a cyclical inflection is lacking a key demand catalyst,” he added.

Majors flagged the potential for mid- to high-single-digit declines to spot rates (excluding fuel) in the fourth quarter if subseasonal trends continue.

Fourth-quarter numbers were cut by high-single digits, with Werner seeing a 16% reduction. Flow through from the 2025 estimate revisions pulled down 2026 numbers between 9% and 17%.

However, Majors sounded more constructive about next year as “truckload’s supply side is entering a period of more rapid rationalization into 2026.” He said “falling Class 8 truck orders” and no “pre-buy ahead of emissions regulation changes” would likely spur net fleet reductions across the industry.

Knight-Swift’s rating was cut to “neutral” on the lower EPS outlook. The valuation multiple was unchanged, resulting in a new share price target of $43 (down from $52).

“To be clear, we continue to see KNX as the best managed, best positioned, and most attractively valued asset-based truckload, as indicated by our positive expected return to target price vs. downside implied for SNDR and WERN,” Majors said. “But a prolonged cyclical turn has a notable dampening effect on KNX’s earnings power just like the rest of the industry.”

He held estimates largely steady and below consensus for the asset-light brokers he follows. C.H. Robinson’s (NASDAQ: CHRW) price target was raised to $160 (from $125) as the company is in the “sweet spot of its lean-enabled/A.I.-supported transformation.”

The third-quarter TL earnings season begins on Oct. 15 when J.B. Hunt reports.

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