Half a century ago, turmoil in the Middle East brought the global economy to its knees. Today, even as the region’s geopolitics grow more fractious, oil markets and central banks typically treat conflict as a shock to watch—not one that dictates the macro outlook. A 1970s-style energy crisis doesn’t look imminent. If it were to materialize, the consequences for inflation, growth and policy would be profound.
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The $108 Oil War: Can the Middle East Crash the World Economy?
