Subaru Sales Are Still Lagging, But Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Subaru seems to have found its rhythm again. After a disappointing 2025 (especially for enthusiasts), the smaller Japanese automaker has been struggling to kick its sales funk so far in 2026, blaming bad weather and lingering inventory shortages for its unimpressive start. Fortunately for Subaru, it looks like momentum is finally shifting again, for the better.

In case you’ve been out of the loop, the past 18 months haven’t been incredibly kind to Subie. The automaker was about a year from releasing the redesigned Outback when Donald Trump was elected a year ago in November, and had just introduced an updated Forester. With tariff hikes looming, Subaru moved Forester production to Indiana, where the compact SUV’s tighter margins would be better preserved. Its more-profitable midsize Outback got the boot to Japan; the more expensive car can better absorb a tariff hit. That’s also why the base Outback was eliminated; Subaru simply can’t afford to sell it that cheaply anymore. Also, RIP Legacy.

That big product shuffle was also at least partially responsible for the WRX’s poor 2025 performance. Not only did Subaru eliminate the base model, but it straight-up built far fewer of its compact sport sedans in 2025 than it had in prior years. These factors combined to almost completely tank its sales last year. Four months into 2026 (and with some help from a reintroduced base model), they’re starting to rebound. Let’s take a look at the trend from 2024 to 2025:

The 2026 sales chart is a little longer than 2025’s since Subaru added two new EVs this year, the Trailseeker and Uncharted, but the relatively small portfolio keeps it easy to grok. While WRX’s YTD sales are still down, even compared to its weak 2025 performance, it looks like April was an inflection point. Last year, the car’s sales were off by nearly 60% in April; this year, they were up more than 50%. It’s not a complete recovery, but the trajectory is good.

Now, look at Outback sales. We can see the earliest signs of Subaru trailing off production of the old Outback here in the 2025 chart. Sales were up 6.4% YTD at this point last year, but April sales had dropped more than 12%. Deliveries are still down by about 28% compared to 2024, but the trajectory has already corrected significantly. Subaru only averaged about 9,000 Outback sales per month in the first quarter; a bump to 10,500 per month, if maintained, will get it another ~12,000 units by year’s end. To hit the same Outback volume Subaru moved in 2024, that average needs to top 16,400 per month for the remainder of the year. That’s unlikely, but not impossible.

It’s worth noting that, at its current pace, Forester is set to blow away its 2025 and 2024 sales volumes.

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