Ministers look at softening UK welfare cuts to head off backbench rebellion

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Ministers are considering a softening of their contentious UK welfare reforms that could allow up to 200,000 people to keep their disability benefits, as the government seeks to stave off a backbench rebellion.

In March, Sir Keir Starmer unveiled plans to reform the welfare system to save the government about £5bn a year by scaling back disability benefits known as “personal independence payments”.

One of the changes being looked at was a tweak to the proposed Pip assessment rules so that individuals who do not receive at least four points in any category, but do receive a high overall score, would still be eligible, according to two people briefed on the discussions.

The change being considered could affect about 13 per cent of the 1.5mn people at risk of having their disability benefits cut.

The people stressed that the government might not opt to pursue this change, and a number of other options were being looked at, as Starmer prepares for what is likely to be the biggest rebellion of his premiership next month.

Labour MPs involved in organising rebels ahead of a crunch vote on the welfare reforms say more than 160 disagree with the proposals, which could see the benefit completely taken away from some 800,000 people, many of whom need help washing themselves or using the toilet.

Starmer is mindful of a need to quell the rebellion and maintain party unity even as he tacks to the right on issues such as immigration and trans rights in his efforts to fend off Nigel Farage’s populist Reform UK party.

The prime minister has already said he was planning to walk back his deeply unpopular decision to strip winter fuel payments from about 10mn pensioners, and has signalled to allies that he was keen to scrap the two-child benefit cap, which is a significant contributor to child poverty.

Under the current system, Pip recipients are given a score of up to 12 in 10 different categories. They need to score a total of at least eight points across all of the categories to receive the “standard rate” of Pip and at least 12 points for the “enhanced rate”.

But under the rules announced earlier this year, due to come into effect in November 2026, claimants will need to score at least four points in at least one category to receive any rate of Pip.

The change being discussed by ministers would allow individuals that score less than four in all categories of daily living activities to still qualify for Pip if they get a high overall score.

This higher overall score could be set at 12, in line with the current score needed to get the enhanced rate, the people said.

Thirteen per cent of people that currently score 12 or above overall — and are therefore eligible for the enhanced rate of Pip — were awarded less than four points for all assessment categories, according to data provided by the government under Freedom of Information laws. This equates to about 210,000 people,

The Office for Budget Responsibility said that taking into account the raw number of recipients today, Starmer’s proposed welfare reforms would mean that about 1.5mn people could lose out on the benefit. But it added that it expected behavioural change by applicants and assessors to significantly reduce the number of people affected.

The watchdog therefore estimated that around 800,000 people will lose out on the disability benefit, equating to about 16 per cent of recipients.

People close to the government stress that the changes would not come into effect until November of next year, and it would take three years to reassess everyone already on the caseload.

A government spokesperson said: “The majority of people who are currently getting Pip will continue to receive it. We will never compromise on protecting people who need our support, and our reforms will mean the social security system will always be there for those who will never be able to work, and that their income is protected.”