Oscars Shortlists 2026 Analysis: Sinners, Wicked: For Good, Sirat

Are the Oscar shortlists a reflection of the overall preferences of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences?

If so, then Academy members must really love Warners’ Sinners and Universal’s Wicked: For Good — two giant blockbusters, the former of which also received raves and the latter of which didn’t — given that, in Tuesday afternoon’s announcement of shortlists for 12 categories, they co-led the field with eight mentions, including two songs, each.

Also if so, then there may be cause for concern for several films that heretofore have been regarded as top-tier contenders, including Neon’s It Was Just an Accident and No Other Choice; Netflix’s Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite; Warners’ Weapons; Amazon’s Hedda and 20th Century’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, each of which registered just a single mention; and Searchlight’s Rental Family and The Testament of Ann Lee, neither of which landed even one.

But it’s not quite as simple as that.

Backers of the first group should certainly celebrate — and backers of the second group should certainly reflect on — today’s announcement. But the bottom line is that the categories for which there are shortlists — which this year included, for the first time, casting and cinematography — overwhelmingly emphasize technical achievements, as opposed to areas like acting, writing and directing, in which some of the films that did not do well today are primed to accrue multiple nominations, and in which some of the films which were heavily shortlisted will be less competitive.

All that being said, I think a few things about the shortlists remain highly notable…

Neon’s Sirât, a dark Spanish-language drama about a father’s quixotic search for his missing daughter, landed five mentions — not only for international feature, which was widely expected, but also for casting, cinematography, score (Kangding Ray’s underground rave music also received Globe and Critics Choice noms) and sound. That’s as many as Warners’ One Battle After Another, the presumptive best picture Oscar frontrunner, and Apple/Warners’ F1: The Movie. And it undeniably reflects that this little film, which tied for the jury prize at May’s Cannes Film Festival, has been widely seen and appreciated, despite featuring subject matter and music that prior incarnations of the Academy probably would have resisted. Everyone has assumed that the international features with the best shot of landing best picture noms are four other Neon titles — It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, No Other Choice and The Secret Agent — but could Sirât crash the party in addition to, or perhaps instead of, one of those? It would be one of the more out-there best picture nominees in history, but after today, one cannot rule out the possibility.

The documentary branch, which has come under fire in recent years for its rejection of docs that are actually popular with the public, especially Netflix-distributed and/or celeb-related titles, showed some improvement in those areas but still threw in a couple of headscratchers for good measure. Credit to them, I suppose, for not punishing the excellent and unfortunately timely The Perfect Neighbor for being from Netflix (same with Apocalypse in the Tropics and Cover-Up) and/or popular (it was the streamer’s most-watched film of any sort for a while). But not finding room for HBO’s My Mom Jayne, Mariska Hargitay’s beautiful film about her relationship with her mom, the late movie star Jayne Mansfield, when numerous other groups have embraced it, including the Producers Guild, which nominated it for its top prize? And because the filmmaker and subject are famous? I’m sorry, but that’s idiotic and comparably weird, to me, as not finding room among the final 15 for Neon’s Orwell: 2+2=5, directed by past nominee Raoul Peck.

The international feature shortlist included a wealth of worthy titles, including the aforementioned five from Neon, as well as excellent options like Netflix’s Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan), Sony Classics’ The President’s Cake (Iraq) and GKIDS’ Kokuho (Japan). But voters surprisingly opted not to shortlist several worthy docs that had been submitted for international feature consideration, most notably PBS’s 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Ukraine) and Nat Geo’s The Tale of Silyan (North Macedonia). However, the shortlist’s most egregious oversight, to me, was Music Box’s Young Mothers (Belgium); its absence means that the brothers Jean-Pierre Dardenne and Luc Dardenne — who have won Cannes’ Palme d’Or twice, and more overall prizes from that fest than any other filmmaker(s) ever, including best screenplay for this film — will remain without even an Oscar nomination to their name.

Two doc features about the Middle East, Coexistence, My Ass! and Holding Liat (both of which are still seeking U.S. distribution), and two international features about the Middle East, Watermelon’s Palestine 36 (Palestine) and WILLA’s The Voice of Hind Rijab (Tunisia), have advanced. I was a little surprised that a third doc feature about the Middle East, Kino Lorber’s Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, wasn’t also shortlisted.

The inaugural casting shortlist spread opportunity all around, as opposed to seizing several opportunities to shortlist a highly-regarded casting director more than once. For example, Nina Gold is a finalist for Focus’ Hamnet, but not for Jay Kelly; Francine Maisler is a finalist for Sinners, but not for Springsteen; Jennifer Venditti is a finalist for A24’s Marty Supreme, but not for Focus’ Bugonia; Avy Kauffman is a finalist for Sentimental Value, but not for Netflix’s Train Dreams; etc.

The MasterClass-distributed documentary feature Diane Warren: Relentless scored two mentions — for Diane Warren’s song “Dear Me” and Lesley Barber’s score. In case the 16 Oscar nominations hadn’t already made it clear, the music branch really loves Warren — and Barber, one of its current governors!

I was pretty surprised that Weapons was not included on the makeup/hairstyling shortlist — to be sure, the look of Amy Madigan’s Aunt Gladys was not exactly subtle, but it was certainly effective at adding to that film’s horror. Also missing out: Black Bear’s Christy, Sony Classics’ Blue Moon, Sony’s 28 Years Later and Neon’s The Life of Chuck, among others with showy makeup and/or hairstyling.

Ten of the 15 films shortlisted for documentary feature were directed or co-directed by women: The Alabama Solution, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Coexistence, My Ass!, Cover-Up, Cutting Through Rocks, Folktales, Mistress Dispeller, My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 — Last Air in Moscow, The Perfect Neighbor and Seeds. I am working to confirm if this is a record, but I’m pretty sure it is.

Seven of the 15 films shortlisted for international feature were directed by women: Belén (Argentina), Sound of Falling (Germany), All That’s Left of You (Jordan), Palestine 36 (Palestine), Late Shift (Switzerland), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) and The Voice of Hind Rijab (Tunisia). I am working to confirm if this is a record, but I’m pretty sure it is.

And three films that won Student Academy Awards this year were shortlisted: The Shyness of Trees (animated short), Butcher’s Strain (live action short) and Dad’s Not Home (live action short). The kids are all right!

Oscar nominations voting for all categories, whether or not they were winnowed down by a shortlist, will run from Jan. 12-16, 2026, with the nominations announcement to follow on Jan. 22, 2026.