Goldman Sachs resets China robotaxi fleet stock forecast

Goldman Sachs just raised its outlook on China’s robotaxi market by a meaningful margin. The revision signals the bank now believes commercialization is moving faster than it previously assumed.

In a note published April 18, Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang forecast that China’s robotaxi fleet will nearly triple from 5,000 vehicles in 2025 to 14,000 by the end of 2026. By 2035, the bank projects 3.1 million units on the road, representing 36% of all ride-sharing vehicles in the country.

The revision is not a minor tweak. Fleet estimates were raised 7% to 25% across the entire 2025 to 2035 forecast period, according to Investing.com.

Goldman cited two reasons. First, deployment has been smoother than expected. Second, operators have given clearer guidance on their 2026 expansion targets.

“Commercialization is speeding up, with several players achieving city-level break-even,” Chang wrote in the note, according to Investing.com.

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That city-level break-even detail matters. Robotaxi businesses have long been judged on whether they can ever turn profitable at scale. Goldman’s note says some operators are already proving the economics work in specific markets.

Tier-1 cities in China are expected to reach break-even by 2026, assuming 21 trips per day, an average fare of $2.8, and a vehicle price of $21,000, according to AV Market Strategist.

Goldman’s note was not just a market-size update. The bank named two stocks it wants investors to consider.

On WeRide, Goldman assumed coverage at Buy with a price target of HK$54.23. The bank forecasts WeRide’s revenues will grow at an 80% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030. Its global fleet is expected to expand from 2,800 vehicles in 2026 to 415,000 by 2032, according to Investing.com.

WeRide has already launched public robotaxi rides in Dubai and Riyadh. It is targeting fully driverless passenger services in Abu Dhabi in the first half of 2026. Goldman also noted that WeRide is moving toward an asset-light model, keeping vehicle spending off its balance sheet to accelerate deployment, according to Investing.com.

Pony.ai was the second stock Goldman identified as a beneficiary of the next stage of China’s robotaxi expansion, according to Yahoo Finance.

The same note introduced two additional forecasts that extend beyond the domestic robotaxi story.

On overseas expansion, Goldman projected that by 2026, overseas fleets will account for 29% of WeRide’s global fleet, 9% of Pony AI‘s, and 7% of Baidu’s. By 2035, those shares rise to 43%, 37%, and 38% respectively, according to Investing.com. International markets are becoming a meaningful growth driver, not just an afterthought.

On robotrucks, Goldman said the segment “could become a long-term revenue contributor,” according to Investing.com. The bank did not elaborate in the note’s public summary, but the robotruck opportunity represents another avenue for autonomous vehicle companies to generate recurring revenue beyond passenger rides.

• China robotaxi fleet 2025: 5,000 vehicles

• China robotaxi fleet 2026 forecast: 14,000 vehicles

• China robotaxi fleet 2035 forecast: 3.1 million vehicles, 36% of the ride-sharing market

• Forecast revision range: up 7% to 25% across 2025-2035 period

• WeRide price target: HK$54.23, Buy rating

• WeRide revenue CAGR 2025-2030: 80%

• WeRide global fleet 2026: 2,800 vehicles; by 2032: 415,000

• Lead analyst: Allen Chang, Goldman Sachs
  Source:  Investing.com

Goldman’s revision changes the conversation around China’s autonomous driving names. The bank is not treating this as a long-dated technology bet anymore. It is treating it as a near-term commercial story, with specific fleet targets, break-even timelines, and stock recommendations attached.

China now hosts more active robotaxi deployments than the United States, according to CMC Markets. The regulatory environment, infrastructure investment, and consumer acceptance have all moved faster there than in most other markets. Goldman’s note reflects a view that this advantage is now showing up in the economics, not just in deployment counts.

For investors, the key question is whether the operators Goldman named can sustain the pace of rollout and convert city-level break-even into company-level profitability. Goldman’s 80% revenue CAGR forecast for WeRide suggests the bank believes the scaling story is real. Whether the market prices that in ahead of results is the trade.

Related: Goldman Sachs resets Nebius stock price target for rest of 2026

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Apr 19, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.