The latest International Energy Agency (IEA) update indicates that global coal demand will remain close to the all-time high reached in 2024.
The IEA’s Coal Mid-Year Update revealed that demand will increase to around 8.8 billion tonnes in 2024, a 1.5% rise from 2023.
The report highlighted contrasting regional trends in the first half of 2025.
While coal demand declined in China and India due to weaker electricity consumption and a surge in renewable power generation, the US saw around a 10% increase in coal use. This was driven by higher electricity demand and natural gas prices.
In the EU, coal demand remained broadly unchanged, with industrial consumption decreases offset by higher electricity generation needs.
Despite these short-term fluctuations, the IEA forecasts a slight increase in global coal demand in 2025, followed by a “marginal” drop in 2026.
As a result, demand will come to “just below 2024 levels”, it noted.
This projection aligns with the Coal 2024 report, with the main changes since December including downward revisions for global economic growth and the US’ energy policy shift towards coal.
In China, coal demand is expected to decrease slightly (by less than 1%) during 2025. Conversely, the US is projected to see 7% demand growth, while the EU anticipates a nearly 2% fall.
Production of coal is predicted to hit a “new record” in 2025, with China and India driving the increase.
However, a decline in global coal production is expected in 2026 as high stock levels and lower prices impact supply.
IEA Energy Markets and Security director Keisuke Sadamori said: “While we have seen contrasting trends in different regions in the first half of 2025, these do not alter the underlying trajectory of global coal demand.
“We expect the world’s coal consumption to remain broadly flat this year and next, in line with our previous forecast, although short-term fluctuations remain possible in different regions due to weather conditions and the high degree of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. As in past years, global coal trends continue to be shaped overwhelmingly by China, which consumes almost 30% more coal than the rest of the world combined.”
For the first time since the Covid-related downturn in 2020, coal trade volumes are projected to contract in 2025, with a continued decline into 2026, marking the first back-to-back annual drop this century.
Amid an oversupply, coal prices have dropped to early 2021 levels, resulting in economic challenges for producers.
Indonesia is expected to see the largest output reduction by volume in 2025, but Russian coal exporters are under the most severe economic pressure due to current market conditions.
finance.yahoo.com
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