Crude Prices Gain as Middle Eastern Geopolitical Risks Rise

October WTI crude oil (CLV25) on Tuesday closed up +0.37 (+0.59%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV25) closed up +0.0339 (+1.73%).

Crude oil and gasoline prices moved higher on Tuesday on concern that the conflict in the Middle East could widen after Israel conducted a strike in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders. Also, Ukraine said it has stepped up attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure, which is reducing Russian crude production capabilities. Dollar strength on Tuesday limited the upside in crude prices.

Crude prices jumped on Tuesday as geopolitical risks rose in the Middle East after Israel launched a strike on Doha, Qatar, targeting the senior leadership of Hamas. Qatar said the attack by Israel violated international law and threatens to widen the conflict in the Middle East, the source of about one-third of global oil supplies.

Crude prices also have support after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise its crude production by 137,000 bpd, starting in October. This is less than the 547,000 bpd increase the group decided to boost output in September and August. OPEC+ also said restarting the remainder of the 1.66 million bpd crude production it had idled will be contingent on “evolving market conditions.”

Reduced Russian crude output is tightening global oil supplies and is supportive of prices. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian refineries have curbed Russia’s crude-processing runs to 5.09 million bpd in the first 27 days of August, the lowest monthly average in over 3.25 years.

Crude prices have support on concerns that the ongoing war in Ukraine could lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, reducing global oil supplies. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said last Tuesday that the US “will be examining sanctions on Russia very closely” due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. President Trump has threatened “very big consequences” if Russia doesn’t come to the negotiating table. Last Friday, German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron called for secondary sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine. They said they will push for measures targeting “companies from third countries that support Russia’s war.”

A bearish factor for crude was Monday’s action by Saudi Arabia to cut prices for all of its crude grades today by $1 a barrel for buyers in Asia for delivery in October, a sign of weak demand for crude and a steeper cut than expectations of a -50 cents per barrel reduction.

An increase in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bearish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days rose by +6.8% w/w to 77.69 million bbl in the week ended September 5.

Concerns about higher OPEC production are negative for crude prices as OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production by September 2026. OPEC+ has 1.66 million bpd of production capacity that is due to remain offline until late 2026. OPEC Aug crude production rose by +400,000 bpd to 28.55 million bpd, the highest in over two years.

The consensus is that Wednesday’s weekly EIA crude inventories fell by -1.4 million bbl, and gasoline supplies rose by +500,000 bbl.

Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 29 were -3.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.6% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -13.2% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 29 fell by -0.1% w/w to 13.423 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd posted in the week of 12/6/2024.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending September 5 rose by +2 to 414 rigs, just above the 4-year low of 410 rigs from August 1. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

finance.yahoo.com
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