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Bitcoin’s rally stalled in the $80,000–$82,000 range, where it has largely traded since last Wednesday. While fund flows continue to point toward an eventual breakout, macro risks, particularly inflation, suggest caution.
The U.S. is scheduled to report its consumer price index (CPI) for April at 8:30 a.m. ET. According to FactSet, the median estimate is 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. If that proves correct, it would mark the largest increase in the CPI since January 2024 and be well above the trailing 12-month average of 2.7%.
Analysts are worried that such a reading, especially against the backdrop of what President Donald Trump described as an “unbelievably weak” U.S.-Iran ceasefire and still-elevated oil prices, could trigger risk aversion, potentially weighing on asset prices.
“Markets are entering a highly sensitive period where geopolitics, inflation risks and central bank expectations are colliding,” said Lukman Otunuga, head of market research at global trading broker FXTM. “The combination of elevated oil prices, uncertainty around the Iran conflict, and critical U.S. economic data could drive heightened volatility across commodities, currencies and global equities in the days ahead.”
Still, the reaction could also depend on the core CPI print, which excludes the volatile food and energy component. The core reading is forecast to have increased to 2.7% year-on-year from 2.6% in March.
It’s also possible that higher inflation is already priced in, which may be why the rally stalled in the first place.
Beyond inflation, another key development is XRP and Solana’s (SOL) proximity to major supply zones. XRP briefly tested $1.50 today, a price where breakouts have repeatedly proved short-lived since February. The same applies to SOL, which has once again approached resistance near $97.
Institutional demand for these tokens is heating up. On Monday, the U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs pulled in $25.8 million in investor funds, the most since Jan. 5. Bitcoin and solana ETFs also continued to attract money, while ether ETFs lost $16.9 million.
In traditional markets, WTI crude futures jumped over 3% and Nasdaq futures dropped over 0.7%, both pointing to risk aversion. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format since January.
The cryptocurrency tested resistance at $1.50 early today and has since pulled back. Over the past three months, recovery rallies in the token have been cut short by persistent selling pressure above $1.50.
A decisive break above that level could trigger a much stronger rally as more traders start buying in, adding momentum to the move higher.
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