Will new SIR numbers affect political calculus in urban hubs, key regions in Uttar Pradesh?

Uttar Pradesh’s final electoral rolls have not only altered the voter list but are also likely to compel political parties to redraw their strategy for the 2027 assembly elections. The Election Commission of India (ECI) published the final rolls on Friday after the 166-day Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise.

Between October 27, 2025 and April 10, the electoral rolls witnessed overall voter deletions not only in urban hubs—including Lucknow, Ghaziabad, Kanpur Nagar, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Meerut, Agra and Prayagraj—but also in districts with a large rural population: Kannauj, Balrampur, Budaun, Bahraich, Farrukhabad, Sonbhadra and Etawah.

The state’s urban areas are considered the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strongholds and played a significant role in the party’s victory in the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections, denting the Opposition Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party’s support base.

In the 2017 and 2022 assembly elections, the BJP won the most seats in Lucknow, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Meerut and Prayagraj.

It remains to be seen whether the deletion of a large number of voters’ names impacts the party’s electoral prospects.

The districts with a high rural population are considered the Samajwadi Party’s strongholds. Riding on the PDA (Pichda, Dalit Alpsankhyak) formula, the SP increased its tally to 37 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh, securing a majority of rural seats by playing the caste card. The overall deletion of a large number of voters in Kannauj, Etawah, Budaun, Farrukhabad and Bahraich is likely to cause concern in the SP camp.

The deletion of duplicate, deceased and shifted voters, addition of new names as well as migration of a large number of voters from urban hubs to rural areas has led to demographic changes in several constituencies.

The BJP, SP, BSP and Congress maintained a close watch on the SIR process in Uttar Pradesh. The parties mobilised their cadre not only to convince voters not to shift from the urban to rural areas but also ensured that new voters were enrolled after deletions in the draft rolls.

The final electoral rolls revealed the maximum deletions (since October 27, 2025) in urban hubs.

These include Lucknow with over 914,000 (22.89%) voters removed, Ghaziabad with 574,000 (20.24%), Kanpur Nagar with 687,000 (19.42%), Gautam Buddha Nagar with 360,000 (19.33%), Meerut with 506,000 (18.75%), Agra with 637,000 (17.71%) and Prayagraj with 826,000 (17.62%).

Lucknow Cantt assembly constituency witnessed the deletion of 124,000 names (34.18% ), Allahabad North 145,000 (34.01%), Lucknow East 143,000 (31.01%), Agra Cantt 147,000 (30.47%), Sahibabad 316,000 (30.36 %), Lucknow Central 107,000 (28.88%), Kalyanpur 103,000 (28.03 %), Meerut Cantt 121,000 (27.79%), Kanpur Cantt 97,558 (26.59%) and Agra North (26.58%).

Among districts with a large rural population, 221,000 names have been dropped in the final voter list in Kannauj, 272,000 (17.20 %) in Balrampur, 390,000 (16.13 %) in Budaun, 426,000 (16.12%) in Bahraich, 223,000 (15.96%) in Farrukhabad, 207,000 (14.77%) in Sonbhadra and 179,000 (14.57% in Etawah.

Traditionally, the BJP has had an edge over its political rivals in the National Capital Region districts of Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Meerut. It also has had an upper hand in Bareilly and Agra in West UP as well as Lucknow in Central Uttar Pradesh, besides Prayagraj, Varanasi and Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh. These districts have witnessed maximum deletion of voters (since the pre-SIR stage which began on October 27, 2025).

Rohilkhand region’s Rampur, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Bijnor, Amroha and Pilibhit districts saw 8% to 10% overall deletions. The region is considered a strong Samajwadi Party citadel.

Deletions were also on the lower side in Azamgarh (9.46%), Ambedkar Nagar (9.90%), Mainpuri (10.29%), Jaunpur (9.86%), Etah (11.20), Ghazipur (10.89%) and Firozabad (8.95%) where the Samajwadi Party won a key chunk of seats in 2022. The draft rolls published on January 6 listed 125.5 million voters, down from 154.4 million voters in the rolls published on October 27, 2025.