Iran ceasefire undercuts Benjamin Netanyahu’s election pitch

As he launched the war against Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu promised his countrymen the conflict would be a watershed for Israel.

“This war will lead to peace,” the Israeli prime minister, who is preparing for an unprecedented seventh term in elections later this year, said at the outset of the US-Israeli campaign. “We have gone to battle to change the situation fundamentally, to put an end to the threat.”

But as Donald Trump announced a ceasefire five weeks later, with Iran’s regime still standing, still firing missiles, and still insisting on its right to enrich uranium, there was little sign that the conflict has been a game-changer for Israel — or for Netanyahu’s political fortunes.

Allies and foes of the premier expect the campaign against the Iranian regime — widely backed by the Israeli public — to play a prominent role in the elections, which are due in at most six months.

However, the first opinion poll in the aftermath of the ceasefire made grim reading for Netanyahu, whose coalition has lagged behind the opposition in the polls for more than two years: 63 per cent of Israelis were dissatisfied with the results of the war. Less than half were satisfied with Netanyahu’s performance, which has also drawn scathing criticism from his political opponents.

“Netanyahu is fighting for his future,” a diplomat said. “And as it stands the ceasefire is not good for him. He didn’t achieve anything yet that he can sell” to the Israeli public.

In a video after the Passover festival ended on Wednesday, Netanyahu talked up Israel’s campaign, arguing it had set the Iranian regime back “many years”, decimated its leadership and military capabilities, and forced Tehran to agree to a ceasefire without its preconditions being met.

“Iran is weaker than ever, Israel is as strong as it has ever been,” he said.

But Netanyahu’s opponents from the left and right sought to cast the war as the latest example of what they say has been one of the Israeli premier’s central shortcomings in the years of Middle East conflict since Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack: the failure to land a knockout blow on any of Israel’s enemies, despite repeated promises of total victory.

“Three years after October 7, Hamas rules Gaza, Hizbollah rules Lebanon, and instead of an 86-year-old Khamenei ruling Iran, a 56-year-old Khamenei rules Iran,” said Yair Lapid, head of the largest opposition grouping, Yesh Atid, referring to the Islamic republic’s supreme leaders.

“For the thousandth time, it has been proven: military force without a diplomatic plan does not lead to decisive victory.”

There were also signs of disappointment from people closer to Netanyahu.

Zvika Fogel, a member of Netanyahu’s coalition from the far-right Jewish Power party, posted then deleted an X post accusing Trump of “ducking out”. An Israeli official said Israel was “concerned about the agreement and would still like to achieve more”.

Analysts said part of the problem for Netanyahu was that his compatriots entered the war, which polls suggested was backed by more than 80 per cent of Israelis, with high expectations of what was achievable.

A survey by the Institute for National Security Studies think-tank in Tel Aviv in the first week of fighting found 69 per cent of Israelis thought the war would significantly weaken Iran’s regime. In another INSS poll last week, the figure had fallen to 43.5 per cent.

“People were ready to bear the burden of 40 days of war, sitting in shelters, losing their salaries, killing their vacations, being in constant danger from missiles,” said Aviv Bushinsky, who previously served as Netanyahu’s chief of staff and is now a political analyst. “But in return, they expected to receive way more than what we have right now.”

Dahlia Scheindlin, a pollster and political analyst, said another potential vulnerability for the prime minister was the impression that Trump had strong-armed Israel into a ceasefire, with Netanyahu sidelined once the US president negotiated with Iran.

“Israelis like it when Israel looks strong. They particularly like it when Israel takes its own security matters into its own hands. And they love the partnership with the US,” she said. “But they do not like the feeling that Trump called the shots.”

Netanyahu has hit back at critics of Israel’s military achievements and insisted the campaign was not over. “We still have goals to complete, and we will achieve them either by agreement or by the resumption of fighting,” he said. “Our finger is on the trigger.”

He also ordered the biggest assault on Lebanon since the resumption of hostilities between Israel and the Iran-backed Hizbollah militant group last month, despite threats from Tehran that this could jeopardise the truce.

Analysts said further fighting or a deal between the US and Iran that imposed significant costs on Tehran — such as forcing it to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium, or accepting curbs on its missile programme — could change the way the war was perceived in Israel. But previous events during the past two years of fighting suggested this would ultimately have a limited effect on voter behaviour.

Scheindlin noted that despite Israel landing heavy blows on its foes — such as killing Hizbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024 and bombing Iran’s nuclear sites in 2025 — polls have over the past 18 months consistently suggested Netanyahu’s coalition would win between 49 and 56 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament in an election, well short of the 64 it won in 2022.

“There has been almost nothing in credible polls beyond that range,” she said.

An opposition official said he was sceptical the Iran war would prove an exception, even if the ceasefire negotiations gave Netanyahu a better hand than he had now.

“Will Netanyahu be able to salvage a draw from this? Maybe,” the official said, referring to public perceptions of how the war has gone. “But he’s behind, so what he needs is to pick up. And I think he saw this as an opportunity to do so. Of course it’s still early . . . but I don’t see how he picks up support on the back of this.”

Allies of Netanyahu point out that an inconclusive election — which polls suggest is a probable outcome — would allow him to remain in office as the head of a caretaker administration. But Bushinsky said even that would need more achievements than the prime minister had mustered.

“When Trump and Netanyahu launched [the war], they said they were paving the way for regime change in Iran,” he said. “But if the war ends with the ceasefire as it currently is, it will pave the way for political change in Israel.”