XRP has dropped below $1.30 and is testing the $1.28 support level, below which there’s little holder support until $1.15.
Analysts’ bearish target is $1.15 if oil prices stay above $100 and the Fed holds rates.
The conservative forecast is $1.60, and this depends on the CLARITY Act markup and Iran ceasefire progress.
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has dropped to $1.30 in early April, after grinding lower from $1.45 within the past month. The $1.28 support that’s held through every selloff since February is now what’s keeping the XRP price from dropping back to less than a dollar. XRP’s value is down 64% from its $3.65 all-time high, and the token is sitting below every major moving average on the chart.
Analysts weighing up XRP price predictions for April are split between the $1.15 and $1.60 price targets. They all point to macro conditions and the CLARITY Act as the factors that would determine where the XRP price concludes the month. Here’s what we think is the most realistic XRP forecast for April.
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The $1.35 support that held XRP through most of March finally gave way on March 27 when $14.16 billion in quarterly options expired on Deribit. Since then, the XRP price has been trading in a tighter range between $1.28 and $1.33, and the rebound attempts keep stalling below the $1.40 resistance. The rally to $1.37 on March 31 stalled almost immediately, and as of early April the XRP price broke below $1.30 and briefly touched $1.28 before retracing.
XRP is currently trading below both the 50-day EMA at $1.38 and the 200-day EMA at $1.88. The MACD is negative and expanding to the downside, and the RSI sits at roughly 38, which signals weak momentum without being oversold enough to trigger a mechanical bounce. Speculative interest has largely dried up too, with open interest across XRP futures collapsing 73% from its $10.8 billion peak to around $2.4 billion, meaning far fewer traders are placing bets on XRP in either direction right now.
What makes XRP’s current range critical is the $1.28 level sitting just below the $1.30 price. That’s where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is, and our analysis shows that below $1.28 there’s very little accumulated holder support until $1.11. If $1.28 breaks, the XRP price could fall to $1.15 and potentially below $1.00 toward $0.80.
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The biggest obstacle to any XRP rally right now is the volume of holders underwater. Roughly 60% of XRP’s circulating supply is held at an average cost basis around $1.44, which means every time the price pushes toward the $1.40-$1.45 zone, it runs into a wall of holders looking to break even or get out. That resistance is a wall created by millions of wallets that have been underwater for months and will likely sell the moment they get the chance.
Moreover, XRP ETFs flows have been abysmal, recording multiple outflow days compared to consecutive inflows seen at launch. Around $31 million left the XRP ETF in March, and total assets under management dropped from a peak of $1.24 billion in January to roughly $947 million. When institutional products that were supposed to absorb supply start bleeding instead, the buyers that kept the floor intact in late 2025 and early 2026 simply aren’t there anymore.
Based on XRP’s price action and ETF flows, analysts forecast that XRP could fall to $1.15 in a bearish scenario due to the current geopolitical tensions and macro headwinds. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and oil prices remain elevated, XRP could drop to less than a dollar if the $1.28 support breaks.
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While the XRP price has been falling and ETFs have been bleeding, the largest wallets in the market have been doing the opposite. Whale wallets added 1.3 billion XRP in just 48 hours in early March, and on March 10, $738 million worth of XRP moved off exchanges into cold storage.
XRP’s net exchange supply has also dropped 16.28% since February 2025, which means the amount of tokens on exchanges available to sell has been steadily shrinking even as the price keeps sliding. When big holders are pulling tokens off exchanges at that pace, it signals that they are expecting a bigger move up.
The CLARITY Act markup is scheduled for the second half of April and any progress on the Iran ceasefire are all potential catalysts that could flip the current momentum. If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP would break above $1.45 and then race toward $1.60. If the Iran war also ends, then XRP could break above $2-$3 again.
Our realistic XRP price prediction for April is $1.20-$1.40 if the current macro conditions hold. The CLARITY Act is the one catalyst that could realistically shift things this month, and if it clears the Senate Banking Committee, a move toward $1.45 and then $1.60 is on the table. A war ceasefire would also send XRP well past $1.60, but that isn’t something you can build a monthly forecast around.
If the CLARITY Act stalls and the war drags on, XRP’s $1.28 support could break, and when it does, the price would hit $1.15. The key thing to watch is the CLARITY Act markup, the FOMC meeting outcome on April 28-29, and any ceasefire news. Those three events will decide whether XRP will reach $1.60 in April or drop as low as $1.15.
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