What have the US and Israel hit and how can Iran respond?

On Saturday morning, explosions rang out around Iran, with smoke rising over Tehran, while sirens wailed over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Israel had begun a war against Iran, the defence minister Israel Katz announced, with Israelis calling it Operation Roar of the Iron. Israelis were told to brace for incoming Iranian missiles.

The US called it a “massive and ongoing” military operation against Iran, branding the effort Operation Epic Fury. “This regime will soon learn that no one should challenge the strength and might of the United States Armed Forces,” President Donald Trump said in a social media post.

What did Israel and the US strike?

Information on where Israel and the US had struck inside Tehran remained limited and internet access between Iran and the outside world was quickly curbed.

Early reports indicated strikes around Pasteur Street in Tehran, near the Presidential Administration of Iran. Iranian news agencies also reported explosions in other cities — Isfahan, near the site of a nuclear complex that both the US and Israel struck last year during the 12-day war; Kermanshah, in north-western Iran, home to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base; and Shiraz, where the Israelis have alleged Iran has a large underground missile production facility.

Trump said that Washington’s objectives were to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon and destroy its ability to make long-range missiles that could hit the US.

But he also called on the Iranian people to “take over your government” once the strikes are done.

Earlier on Saturday, Israel’s northern command carried out several strikes in southern Lebanon, hitting what it described as Hizbollah infrastructure.

Israel had been warning Hizbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militant group, not to rush to Iran’s defence in preparation for just this eventuality.

What military assets does the US have in the region?

The US has about 40,000 troops in the region, spread across bases and ships, and has built up its largest naval force in the region since the start of its 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Washington’s newest and largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, was in the Mediterranean this week, with reported sightings off the northern coast of Israel on Friday, while the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group was already off the coast of Oman in February.

Each of the two aircraft carrier strike groups is made up of one carrier and three guided-missile destroyers, with an array of weapons to attack and defend its own troops, as well as partner countries.

On board the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R Ford are dozens of planes and helicopters, including F-18s, E-2 airborne early warning aircraft and cargo planes. The Gerald R Ford is also carrying F-35 jets. The US has also added planes to bases in the region.

The US has deployed additional Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Patriot air-defence systems to bases in the region. Both were used in the 2025 war and earlier assaults, depleting their stockpiles of interceptors.

The US operates eight permanent bases in the Middle East, in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It also has access to about a dozen other military sites, including in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

The biggest US base is Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the headquarters for US Central Command, which is responsible for military operations throughout the Middle East. The base has about 10,000 troops. In June, Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid in retaliation for the US bombing the republic’s three main nuclear facilities.

What could Iran do to respond?

When the US struck Iran in June, Tehran’s response was swift, albeit choreographed with Washington to avoid escalation. Air defences shot down Iranian missiles aimed at Al Udeid, which had been emptied.

The Iranians “were very nice. They gave us warning”, Trump said after the attack.

It is unclear how Tehran will focus its retaliation this time. It had earlier threatened to hit US bases across the region if attacked, and air raid sirens sounded across Israel on Saturday morning.

Iran has both medium to long-range missiles capable of hitting Israel and a far greater number of short-range ballistic and cruise missiles that could strike US bases and naval assets in the region.

During last year’s 12-day war, Iran fired hundreds of long-range ballistic missiles, slow-moving cruise missiles and drones at Israel. It did the same in a prior retaliation for Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials.

On both occasions, most were shot down, but dozens broke through Israel’s multi-layered aerial defences and either hit or landed close to sensitive military targets, including near the Mossad HQ.

Now with the US and Israel’s stockpiles of interceptor rockets at unprecedented lows, Iran’s missiles pose a heightened threat. Iran has also learned how to fine-tune the tempo and timing of the salvos to maximise their effectiveness.

But firing those missiles also reveals the location of their launchers, which are often too heavy to move quickly. The Israeli military has attacked launch sites immediately after the missiles are fired, rendering the site — and its missile stockpile — ineffective. Israel’s military often refers to the tactic as “killing the archer”.

Will the conflict spill into the region?

Tehran has been replenishing its missile arsenal since June last year, after expending more than 500 during its brief war with Israel. Experts estimate the combined missile stocks to be in the thousands, capable of an extended salvo war.

Mining the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping lane for global energy supplies from the Gulf, is another option for retaliation. But one expert cautioned this would spark a backlash from China, which depends heavily on Gulf oil.

Gulf states also fear Iran could attack energy infrastructure in the region. In 2019, Iran was blamed for an attack in Saudi Arabia that temporarily knocked out half the kingdom’s crude output.

Iran could harass or seize nearby individual tankers as it did in 2019, or direct allied militias to attack regional energy infrastructure, analysts said. These regional proxies, such as the Houthis or Iraqi Shia militias, could also strike embassies or lightly defended bases.

As recently as November, Iran-backed groups were blamed for a rocket attack on the Khor Mor gasfield in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, disrupting the local power grid.

However, speaking before the attack, Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said he expected retaliation to be calibrated. “Iran has never been interested in having an extended conventional war,” he said.

What are the implications for oil?

Oil markets will not reopen until Monday morning in Asia, but Brent crude rose as much as 3 per cent on Friday to touch a seven-month high of $73 a barrel.

The international oil benchmark has risen nearly 12 per cent over the past month as markets brace for potential supply disruptions stemming from a US-Iran conflict. But it remains below the level of more than $80 briefly touched during the 12-day war in June.

Iran exports about 2 per cent of global oil supply, most of it to China. More importantly, it exerts influence over the Strait of Hormuz, the critical choke point through which about 30 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade passed last year.

The strait has never been closed, despite repeated threats from Tehran. Energy flows were not interrupted during last summer’s war with Israel. Even so, the surge in crude prices during that conflict underlined how sensitive markets are to perceived risks in the region.