Ukraine started today with, for once, the diplomatic wind in its sails.
It had finally agreed a mineral deal “framework” with Washington. An agreement that would see the US invest in Ukraine’s recovery, in return for a share of the country’s future profits from its natural resources, energy infrastructure and its oil and gas.
There had also been a first round of peace talks between American, European and Ukrainian officials in Paris, which had been hailed as “positive”.
That was until the both US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened to pull out of brokering a ceasefire until progress appeared quickly.
It had been hoped by Ukraine that America’s growing impatience with Russia would translate into further sanctions for Moscow. Instead, the threat of the US washing its hands of the ongoing peace efforts suits the Kremlin more than Kyiv.
The consensus is that the collective weight of Ukraine and its European allies would still be insufficient to counter Russian aggression in the long term. Despite continuing in its quest to conquer and occupy as much of Ukraine as possible, Moscow claims it is still striving for peace.
What it has done is launch some of the deadliest missile strikes on civilians in recent days. In Kharkiv in the north-east, more than 100 people were injured and one person was killed after three struck a residential part of the city.
But these attacks have not brought the slightest condemnation from the White House, which has continued to use more of a stick with Kyiv, by pausing military aid, and a carrot with Moscow, by improving relations, to get both sides to mirror its appetite for peace.
Kyiv agreed to a full ceasefire after the US paused its military aid and intelligence sharing. Moscow has not bent from its continued maximalist demands of more Ukrainian territory and the toppling of President Volodymyr Zelensky. It’s hard to see how this threat will bring a breakthrough.
On the calm, open waters of the Black Sea, Mykhailo commands his US-made naval patrol ship. As we stand in the bridge, I ask him whether he feels he’s fighting for Europe, as well as his country.
“If Russia occupies all of Ukraine, who knows?” he replies. “In ten or fifteen years’ time, Russia will go to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, any of the Baltic countries, that is quite clear.”
US military aid for Ukraine is gradually going to run out. No more packages are going to be put before Congress or unlocked by presidential draw-down powers.
Should Washington turn its back on these peace efforts, it would leave Ukraine reliant on its European allies to counter Russia’s continued invasion. The consensus is that that collective weight would be insufficient in the long term.
On this stretch of Ukrainian-controlled coastline Kyiv has a success story. Through launching Western and domestically-produced drones, Russia’s fleet has been forced back, and a major shipping lane has been restored.
But the problem for defending forces, as President Zelensky admits, is the battlefield realities being lost on a wider audience.
Despite the US and Ukraine stepping closer to this mineral deal, the Trump administration’s threat leaves it looking more like a business venture.
It also poses greater questions on whether Washington cares who controls Ukraine in the long term, as long as US commercial interests are protected.
www.bbc.com
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