Texas Senate Race Isn’t Out of Reach for Democrats

I’ve long argued that making Texas statewide races consistently competitive for Democrats requires time, patience, and sustained, multicycle investment.  And I still believe that’s true. But the last decade or so of Texas politics has also been marked by large swings in Democratic vote share in statewide and presidential races, with opportunities sometimes arising at unexpected times. Right now, the data and political dynamics suggests something few could have predicted even a year ago: 2026 offers Democrats a rare near-term opportunity to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. 

I know, I know, we’ve heard this story before, but hear me out. The 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one where the stars may just align for Democratic victory. Texans, and especially Latinos, are souring on Donald Trump and his immigration policies, a national backlash to the administration is taking shape, and strong Democratic candidates are primed to take on a wounded Republican competitor. 

Earlier this year, I argued in The Washington Post  that finding a way to win Texas is a necessity for Democrats at the presidential level — especially as Democratic-leaing states are expected to lose Electoral College votes, and Republican-leaning states are expected to gain them, following the 2030 Census. So those of us looking to make the Lone Star State reliably competitive should be planning for the long-term. But strategic, durable infrastructure building doesn’t mean writing off 2026 because we’re looking so far off in the distance either; it means being prepared to strike when a target that not long ago seemed light years away starts to move within range. 

That moment may just be arriving. 

During the most recent election cycle, immigration and the border topped Texas voters’ concerns, second only to cost of living and inflation. But Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) polling from late August shows that Texans are divided on Trump’s hardline immigration enforcement policy now that it is actually in place.

Forty-seven percent of Texas voters indicate support for recent increases in ICE raids, arrests, and other activity, while 46 percent oppose it. That opposition runs deep among Democrats (77 percent), but it also includes a majority, 52 percent, of independent voters — 33 percent of whom “strongly” disagree with ICE’s actions. 

Meanwhile, 46 percent of Texans say Trump’s immigration enforcement has gone “too far,” while 47 percent believe he’s “doing exactly what he was elected to do.” Among independents, a plurality think the administration has gone “too far” (47 percent versus 41 percent).

Perhaps the most significant electoral development in 2024 was Trump’s progress among Latino voters, who played a crucial role in his win. That swing was very much on display in Texas, where Trump increased his share of the Latino vote by a stunning 13 points compared to 2020. Whether Latino voters’ turn toward the GOP will prove to be an enduring one or a 2024-specific phenomenon is one of the most important questions facing Democrats today. 

While it’s impossible to definitively answer that question right now, early data suggests that Trump’s newfound edge with Latino voters is already eroding. Latino Texans articulate particularly strong disapproval of Trump’s immigration enforcement approach: 65 percent oppose recent ICE activity, and 63 percent say immigration enforcement under Trump has gone too far. And polling from the Texas Politics Project shows Trump’s approval rating with Latinos in the state fell from -2 in February to -33 in August — a 31-point drop. This slippage mirrors national trends and TPOR polling, which shows Trump with -30 favorability rating in August among Texas Latinos. 

Trump isn’t just unpopular with Latinos in Texas. He’s underwater among all demographics statewide, with a favorability rating that has dropped from +12 just after the election to -1 in August. Fifty-two percent of independents have an unfavorable view of him, as do 10 percent of his own 2024 voters. 

Additionally, the polling shows that on a generic ballot, Republicans lead Democrats by a mere 5 percent for the Senate race. (The numbers are similar for the gubernatorial and attorney general races, with a Republican advantage of only 3-6 percent for both.) If the Texas Senate race were held now, 39 percent of independents would vote for the Democratic candidate, compared to 35 percent who’d vote for the Republican. 

During his first term, Trump’s unpopularity contributed to sweeping Republican losses in the 2018 midterms, when Democrats picked up 41 congressional seats and took back control of the House. In 2026, Trump could once again be a millstone around Republicans’ neck. When it comes to the 2026 Senate race in Texas, Democrats are shaping up to have a strong general election candidate.

U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who overperformed Kamala Harris by 5.3 points in his 2024 race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, came out of the gate in July with a strong, anti-establishment message as he now seeks to replace Sen. John Cornyn. In August, State Rep. James Talarico — one of the party’s most compelling, unique rising stars — threw his hat in the ring and quickly proved himself as a formidable fundraiser able to capture national attention. Either will be well-positioned against the eventual Republican nominee, who will be heading into the general election weakened by what is sure to be a divisive, bruising primary battle between scandal-ridden State Attorney General Ken Paxton (the current MAGA favorite), the unpopular incumbent Cornyn (the establishment pick), or U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (currently seen as a spoiler likely to divide the anti-Cornyn vote).

We don’t know if these favorable conditions will exist again in future elections. While Democratic vote share in Texas has been on an upward trajectory since 2012, the 2024 election made clear the progress in the state isn’t linear. And these windows haven’t opened often for Democrats in Texas — at least not in recent decades. 

As the head of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, my north star is building the infrastructure Democrats need to sustainably compete in Texas. That work will take more than just one year and must continue. The 2026 state elections are tight and are likely to stay that way. Even in the best-case scenario, a Democratic win in Texas will be a narrow one. But it’s also the case that the Democratic ecosystem, in Texas and nationally, needs to be nimble enough to recognize an opportunity, and bold enough to seize it. The data show that the stars may be aligning for Democrats in Texas ahead of the 2026 midterms. It’s time to take it seriously. 

Luke Warford is founding partner of the Agave Democratic Infrastructure Fund, a Texas-based political action committee.