Skipping The ICE Age: India’s Unique Path To Electric Mobility

India’s electric vehicle market is developing in a context that differs fundamentally from the United States, Europe, or China. Car ownership per capita is low, two-wheelers dominate personal mobility, and three-wheelers are integral to urban and peri-urban transport. The infrastructure for fueling and maintaining internal combustion vehicles outside of major cities is patchy. These conditions create barriers for ICE growth and, conversely, open the door for electric vehicles to bypass some of the hurdles seen in more motorized countries. The idea of leapfrogging is not theoretical here. India has already done it in mobile telecommunications, where cell networks spread before landlines were universal, and in payments, where digital wallets and instant bank transfers outpaced credit card penetration. The transportation sector has similar potential if costs and infrastructure align.

Two-wheelers are the beating heart of India’s transport system. They account for roughly three-quarters of all registered vehicles, carry the bulk of daily commutes, and are often a household’s first motorized purchase. Their lower cost, lighter weight, and shorter range requirements make them easier to electrify than passenger cars. Electric scooters and motorcycles are already widely available, with domestic manufacturers like Ola Electric, Ather, and TVS expanding model ranges and cutting prices. Central and state subsidies have supported uptake, although recent cuts in FAME II incentives for two-wheelers temporarily slowed sales. Even so, economics remain a strong driver. The total cost of ownership for an e-scooter is now competitive with a petrol model for high-use riders, particularly for delivery and courier work. In cities where charging is accessible, electric two-wheelers can already be the default choice. A tipping point for new sales dominance could occur in the late 2020s, with fleet dominance following within a few years.

Three-wheelers, especially electric rickshaws, are an even clearer case of rapid electrification. They already make up a majority of sales in their category in some states and cities, driven by cost per kilometer, ease of home or depot charging, and the fact that most operate on fixed routes within a limited radius. Informal financing and a thriving aftermarket for parts have helped the segment expand beyond formal policy support. Many small towns now have visible clusters of e-rickshaws, despite lacking other EV infrastructure. At current growth rates, three-wheeler electrification will reach saturation in the early 2030s, if not sooner, effectively leapfrogging the development of a dense ICE fueling and maintenance network for these vehicles.

Four-wheelers and buses face a steeper climb. Private car buyers in India are extremely price sensitive, and most new cars sold are compact models costing a fraction of the average new car in the US or Europe. Even with falling battery prices, many electric cars remain 20–30% more expensive than comparable petrol models. Limited model availability in the budget segment constrains choice. Charging infrastructure for cars is concentrated in metros, with highway fast-charging still sparse. For buses, high upfront costs and financing hurdles slow deployment despite the clear air quality and operational benefits. Public procurement programs are helping, and several cities now operate electric bus fleets, but a national tipping point is some years away.

The absence of entrenched ICE infrastructure outside cities means that the cost of building out EV charging in these areas can be competitive with extending petrol and diesel networks. In rural and semi-urban areas, where fuel stations and skilled mechanics are scarce, a basic EV charging setup may be easier to establish than a compliant fuel depot. This lack of ICE entrenchment also shortens the tail of ICE dominance once EVs become price and performance competitive. In the US or Europe, the service life of existing ICE infrastructure and the cultural attachment to combustion vehicles slows the shift. In India, many households have no such attachment because they have never owned a car, or have relied on two-wheelers and public transport. If their first personal motor vehicle is an EV, the inertia that slows adoption elsewhere will be absent.

India’s average driving distances are shorter than in the US and comparable to many European countries. Urban car users often drive 20–40 km per day, and two- and three-wheeler users often cover even less. This means that modest-range EVs are practical for a large share of daily needs. For two- and three-wheelers, overnight charging from a household connection or a simple shared socket can be sufficient. For cars, home charging is less straightforward in apartment blocks, but solutions like shared chargers in housing societies and workplace charging can fill the gap. Battery swapping is gaining traction for commercial fleets and could expand for two-wheelers, further reducing reliance on a fixed charging location.

India’s urban transit planning is increasingly focused on expanding mass rapid transit systems, improving bus networks, and integrating last-mile connectivity, and these efforts have the potential to significantly influence future car ownership trends. Metro rail projects are underway or operational in over a dozen major cities, with extensions planned to connect suburban and peri-urban areas, reducing the need for private car commutes. Many cities are investing in electric bus fleets, dedicated bus lanes, and app-based ticketing to make public transport more reliable and convenient. Combined with infrastructure for cycling, walking, and electric two- and three-wheelers for short trips, these measures create a multimodal ecosystem where car ownership is less necessary for daily mobility.

If these transit systems achieve scale, efficiency, and affordability, they could slow the growth of private car ownership in urban areas, particularly for households that would otherwise be first-time buyers. Over time, this could help concentrate electric vehicle adoption in shared and public fleets while reducing the total number of cars needed to meet urban mobility demand.

Policy will be decisive in determining how quickly tipping points arrive. The central government’s FAME II scheme, various state incentives, and the Production-Linked Incentive program for manufacturing have built momentum. States that have combined purchase subsidies with manufacturing support and infrastructure rollout, such as Delhi, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, are seeing higher adoption. Consistency matters. The market reacts sharply to changes, as seen when two-wheeler subsidies were cut. A clear, long-term roadmap that covers all major segments and addresses infrastructure gaps will give manufacturers and investors confidence to commit capital at scale.

Projections for the coming decades reflect both the constraints and the leapfrogging potential. In 2025, BEVs will likely make up only a small share of new passenger car sales, but electric two- and three-wheelers will account for a significant fraction of their markets. By 2030, electric two-wheelers could be the majority of new sales, three-wheelers could be close to full electrification, and electric cars might approach 20–30% of new sales in leading states. The national car fleet would still be mostly ICE, but the total EV fleet, including two- and three-wheelers, could reach tens of millions of units. By 2040, with battery costs lower, more models available across price points, and a dense charging network, India could see electric cars as a majority of new sales, and its entire two- and three-wheeler fleets electric. At that point, the absence of sunk costs in ICE infrastructure will make the final stages of transition faster than in markets where that infrastructure still has to be retired.

India’s path will not be a slower version of the US or European transition. It will follow its own curve, shaped by its current mix of vehicles, infrastructure gaps, and economic realities. In two- and three-wheelers, the tipping point is either here or very close. In cars and buses, it is further out, but the slope of the curve could steepen rapidly once affordability and infrastructure align. The lack of ICE entrenchment, far from being a disadvantage, could turn into one of India’s strongest assets in the global race to electrify transportation.