Rivian is betting its future on one of the fastest EV launches in US history

Rivian is planning one of the fastest launches of a new all-electric car in the U.S. with its forthcoming R2 SUV, according to company statements and a TechCrunch analysis of historical sales data.

If Rivian is successful, it would prove a strong start for a product that founder and CEO RJ Scaringe has said is “maybe the most important thing we’ve launched to date.”

It can’t afford not to. Rivian’s future — and chances at profitability — hinges on the success of the R2. If it struggles to ramp production and sales of the R2, shareholders could flee. At the very least, it would raise questions about the company’s strategy of burning through billions now to prepare for mass-market scale.

Rivian told investors last month that it expects to sell between 20,000 and 25,000 R2s this year, with the first SUVs likely to head to customers in June once production begins. Even if Rivian hits the low end of that target, its sales rate will outpace every other comparable electric at or under $60,000 other than the Tesla Model Y.

The Model Y, launched in March 2020, took only around four months to surpass 20,000 vehicles sold. Rivian is aiming to do it in about six months, or roughly the same amount of time it took the Honda Prologue to reach that sales milestone when it debuted in 2024.

The next-quickest EV to hit 20,000 in sales in the U.S. was the Chevy Equinox EV, which did it in around eight months after it hit the market in 2024. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E took a similar amount of time after launching in 2021, while Korean EVs like the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 took around 10 and 11 months, respectively.

Cars that had rough rollouts, like Tesla’s Model 3 (the origin of Elon Musk’s famous “production hell”) or the Chevy Blazer EV (which suffered through a major stop-sale and recall) took as long or longer.

Rivian is launching the R2 into a much different market. Nearly all of those other models had the benefit of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which was killed off by Congress and President Trump in September last year. Major automakers are scaling back or cancelling plans for some electric vehicles in the face of looser emissions regulations. Trump’s chaotic tariffs have also made vehicles more expensive — including Rivian’s existing lineup.

Scaringe has spun these challenges as advantages, saying that the EV market lacks choice, especially at the more affordable end. Rivian has said the R2 SUV will start at $45,000, with Scaringe positioning the more affordable price tag as crucial to its mass-market success.

A lower starting price could boost the chances of the R2 getting off to a hot start, but neither Scaringe nor the company has said when it will actually make a $45,000 version of the R2 available. The company is instead launching with a dual-motor, higher-trim version of the SUV that will almost certainly cost more.

More pricing and details will be announced at an event on March 12. But in early February the company removed “Starting at $45,000” from the R2 section of its website. Rivian told TechCrunch last month that it remains “committed” to that base price despite the change. The company did not respond to emailed requests for comment on its R2 launch plans.

Despite the headwinds against EVs in the U.S. at the moment, there appears to be strong demand for upcoming electric SUVs priced near or slightly above the R2, like Volvo’s EX60, BMW’s iX3, and the Mercedes-Benz GLC. Those won’t come stateside until later this year, though, offering the R2 a competitive advantage, according to Edmunds consumer insights analyst Joseph Yoon.

“[Scaringe is] right that, that kind of compact-ish, mid-size-ish segment is really kind of missing” for EVs, he said. Yoon said Rivian has also worked hard to simplify the manufacturing process for the R2 compared to its current vehicles, which should help the company reach scale more quickly.

But some Wall Street analysts are skeptical. Last month, DA Davidson analyst Michael Shlisky lowered his price target for Rivian citing the company’s “aggressive” R2 launch expectations.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note published last year that he estimates Rivian’s average transaction price for the R2 could hover around $60,000 or higher “for the next several years” while they get built in Illinois, until the company gets its new Georgia factory up and running.