Petrol & Diesel Could Run Out In The United Kingdom By 2038?

Some years ago, a guy had a blog with hundreds of posts about what he called the ‘benefits’ of fossil fuels. His blog was a pro-fossil fuels propaganda collection of his own writings. If I recall, he was from a midwestern state in the US. It may have been the most biased information about fossil fuels I had ever seen. He wrote about how it seemed impossible to him that in the future some time, clean renewable energy would entirely replace fossil fuels as if he could not imagine a time when there wouldn’t be any fossil fuel. Somehow, he couldn’t register what a world without fossil fuels would be like. In particular, he seemed to be focused on gasoline, diesel, natural gas, crude oil, and so on.

Maybe he wasn’t that aware of human history, because it wasn’t long ago gasoline, diesel, bunker fuel, crude oil, propane, fracking, etc., did not exist. The internal combustion engine for personal transportation is less than 200 years old. “In the twentieth century, few inventions had as enduring an influence on the economy and environment, as well as on the daily lives of millions of people, as the internal combustion engines developed by Nikolaus Otto (1832-1891) in the 1860s and Rudolf Diesel (1858-1913) in the 1890s.” Perhaps he was also unaware there are electric vehicles over 100 years old. 

What we are seeing today is the gradual replacing of internal combustion engine vehicles, including diesels, with all-electric vehicles. Naturally, this means gas and diesel stations are being shuttered and more EV chargers are being installed. Also, EV owners typically have their own home chargers and home charging is more convenient than driving a gas or diesel vehicle to a gas station.

In fact, I just conducted an interview with Be.EV about a derelict petrol station transforming into an EV charging hub. Asif Ghafoor, CEO of Be.EV, answered some questions about it then, and he just answered some more about if the UK might run out of petrol and diesel.

Is it possible the UK could run out of petrol and diesel by 2038?

As more people switch to electric vehicles and realize the benefits over petrol and diesel cars, demand for traditional fuel is set to drop quickly. With the UK banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, and only a few hybrids allowed until 2035, we’re likely to see far fewer petrol stations in the years ahead.

If the pace of decline since the 1960s stays the same, then it is certainly possible that the UK runs out of petrol and diesel by 2038.

There’s also been a real shift in attitudes towards EVs, helping drive adoption. As electric vehicles become more affordable and accessible — and with just 3% of EV drivers ever switching back to petrol or diesel — it’s clear they’re here to stay and that the UK is headed towards a dramatic decline in petrol and diesel. 

Where is the evidence that supports this possibility?

The number of petrol stations in Britain has been in steady decline since the 1960s. According to the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), there were 38,000 filling stations in 1964. That number halved between 1992 and 2010 — dropping from 18,000 to around 9,000 — and has since stabilized at roughly 8,500.

However, several forces are likely to accelerate closures in the coming decades. These include rising EV adoption, falling fuel sales making smaller stations unviable, the 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars, and many retailers choosing to convert forecourts into EV charging hubs instead.

How many petrol and diesel filling stations are operating in the UK now?

Today, there are 8,465 petrol stations in the UK, according to Statista. 

Are they decreasing steadily in number?

Between 2000 and 2021, over 35% of UK petrol stations closed — though the pace of closures slowed after 2010. Numbers hit their lowest point in late 2021, with just 8,378 sites operational or in development. With 100,000 public EV chargepoints now available across the UK, it’s becoming easier than ever for consumers to make the switch to electric. 

With attitudes shifting and only 3% of EV owners saying they would return to a petrol or diesel vehicle, it’s clear that continued investment in EV charging infrastructure is essential.

How many home EV chargers are there in the UK?

By the end of 2024, around one million home charge points had been installed across the UK. To accelerate adoption further, the government has recently announced a £700 million charging grant to make EVs more affordable.

How many public EV charger ports are there right now?

According to ZapMap, there were 82,369 electric vehicle charge points across 40,470 locations in the UK as of June this year. Not all public chargers are the same — they vary in speed, plug type and which networks they’re on.

At some point, will there be no way for internal combustion engine vehicle owners in the UK to get petrol or diesel?

With petrol station numbers already in long-term decline, several factors are set to accelerate closures in the coming decades — including rising EV adoption, falling fuel sales making smaller sites economically unviable, the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars, and more retailers converting forecourts into EV charging hubs. As a result, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle owners may find it increasingly difficult to access petrol or diesel in the years ahead.

In Norway, one of the more mature EV markets, you can see that traditional fuel pumps are being replaced with electric vehicle charging stations due to the country’s rapid transition to electric vehicles. Just over a quarter (28.09%) of all cars on Norwegian roads are now electric compared to 23% petrol, 36% diesel and 12% hybrid cars. By 2032, it is expected that EV numbers will overtake diesels and hold complete market share. This is the way that we expect the UK to go at some point in the future — we all know what the benefits of EVs are and what needs to be done to bolster uptake, it’s just a matter of time before we start seeing the same uptake as places like Norway.