Oscars Supporting Actor and Actress Races and Why Categories Are Open

Who said playing support was easy?

In an awards season overflowing with frontrunners and over-analyzed narratives, it’s not best picture or lead actor that’s stirring the pot the most. Instead, the two supporting actor categories have become the season’s most unpredictable races.

Starting with supporting actress, 75-year-old veteran Amy Madigan has dominated critics’ prizes for her chilling turn in the psychological horror film “Weapons,” yet she remains an island unto herself. Her film received no other nominations, a historically complex scenario for any contender.

Over the past 25 years, only five actors have won as their film’s sole nominee. The last supporting actress to do so was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008). Those winners had strong external narratives — overdue sentiment, biopic subject matter or odd category placements. Madigan, who nabbed her second Oscar bid 40 years after her first for “Twice in a Lifetime,” has none of those advantages.

Her competition is tough. Teyana Taylor’s Golden Globe-winning role in “One Battle After Another” positioned her as the only nominee in her category to land all four major televised precursors. Meanwhile, Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) bring momentum from both critics’ circles and BAFTA.

The upcoming Actor Awards (formerly SAG), airing March 1, will likely determine who’s in the lead heading into final voting. Madigan, Taylor and Mosaku all are nominated, and the winner will have the last televised word before Oscar ballots go out.

In supporting actor, there’s no clear favorite, no unified precursor trend and no consensus on who’s leading.

Stellan Skarsgård looked unbeatable after winning the Golden Globe for “Sentimental Value.” But a major red flag appeared when he was left out of SAG. That, coupled with Jacob Elordi’s CCA win for “Frankenstein” and Benicio Del Toro doubling Skarsgård’s number of critics’ wins for “One Battle After Another,” fractured the race.

And then came Delroy Lindo. The 73-year-old veteran landed a surprise Oscar bid for his scene-stealing turn in Ryan Coogler’s vampire drama “Sinners,” despite being snubbed by every major precursor.

Only three actors in modern history — Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”) and Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) — have won an Oscar without a SAG nom. Harden is the only one who, like Lindo, missed every major precursor.

Can Skarsgård or Lindo actually win? It depends on who takes SAG and BAFTA. Since neither is nominated at those shows, the outcome could hinge on whether Del Toro or Elordi scores a televised victory.

Oscar acting upsets are notoriously difficult to call. Judi Dench won for eight minutes of screen time in “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), and Juliette Binoche upset Lauren Bacall in “The English Patient” (1997). In 1976, Beatrice Straight won for five minutes in “Network,” one of three acting wins for a film that lost best picture to “Rocky.”

Even Harden’s win came in a year of split precursors — Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand (both for “Almost Famous”) won Globe and CCA, respectively, Judi Dench won SAG for “Chocolat” and Julie Walters took BAFTA for “Billy Elliot.” Could the men’s race follow a similar path?

“In supporting actor, I’ll be honest, I haven’t made up my mind yet,” one Academy member tells Variety. “This is one of those that I love almost all of them — well, except for Sean Penn, but that’s more about who he is.”

Still, Penn — a two-time Oscar winner — has the third-most critics’ wins this season, so it’s hard to count him out.

If Elordi wins SAG, he surges forward. If Del Toro takes both SAG and BAFTA, he could lock in his second Oscar after “Traffic” (2001). If Skarsgård has Globe and BAFTA, that combo might carry him. And if “Sinners” wins the SAG ensemble prize, you can bet they’ll give Lindo the ball to run up the field and deliver what could be the night’s defining, touchdown-worthy speech for both himself and a history-making film.

For the first time in years, we genuinely don’t know how this story ends.

Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien.

Best Picture: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler

Director: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)

Actor: Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler

Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson

Casting: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler

Animated Feature: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong

Production Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell; Shane Vieau

Cinematography: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw

Costume Design: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley

Film Editing: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione

Makeup and Hairstyling: “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

Sound: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

Original Score: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson

Original Song: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park

Documentary Feature: “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) — Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

International Feature: “Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) — dir. Joachim Trier

Animated Short: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” (National Film Board of Canada) — Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski

Documentary Short: “All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Live Action Short: “Two People Exchanging Saliva” (Canal+/The New Yorker) — Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Projected winner leaders (films): “Sinners” (6), “Frankenstein” (3); “F1” “KPop Demon Hunters” and “Sentimental Value” (2)

Projected winner leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (10), Netflix (7), Apple Original Films and Neon (2)