Oscars Shortlist Predictions: Sinners, Wicked: For Good, Secret Agent

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce its highly anticipated shortlists on Tuesday, narrowing hundreds of eligible films across a dozen categories ahead of the 98th Academy Awards in March, and becoming the first firm indication of where voters’ mindsets currently align at this midway point of the phase one period.

Several of these categories have used shortlists for years, but the mechanics behind how films advance have evolved significantly, reshaping what surprises — or lack thereof — we should expect when the lists are unveiled.

Voting concluded Dec. 12 for shortlists in documentary short, documentary feature, international feature film, makeup and hairstyling, original score, original song, sound, visual effects, animated short and live-action short. In addition, the cinematography race will reveal a shortlist, using a two-step nominating process for the first time, as well as best casting, a brand-new category making its long-awaited Oscar debut.

The most consequential change came quietly. In both the documentary feature and international feature categories, the Academy discarded the old numerical scoring system, which once allowed lesser-seen films to compete on equal footing by averaging voter scores. Under that method, a film seen by only a handful of voters could advance if it scored well, regardless of visibility. International voters’ selections were also supplemented by an executive committee that could add more challenging or under-the-radar titles. Shortlists provide a clearer roadmap — but obviously, not a foolproof one — for predicting what’s coming. Past shortlists have included many movies that ended up fizzling out, such as “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which both showed up in several categories such as music and visual effects, but resulted in sole animated feature noms in their respective years.

In the documentary feature field, 201 films are eligible for nomination and voters are required to watch at least 20 films each, with 15 films being named on the shortlist. This category presents the year’s most daunting selection process.

That system is gone. Now, voters are still assigned a required-viewing list but may watch as many additional films as they choose, and the movies that receive the most votes advance via the Academy’s ranked-choice system. The practical result has been fewer shocks. Especially in the international category, the films with the strongest campaigns, widest exposure and most attention tend to dominate the shortlist.

With 201 eligible documentaries and each voter required to see at least 20, the field remains vast, even as the edges of the race sharpen. Based on performance across precursor awards, a core group has emerged as the safest bets, including PBS’ “2000 Meters to Andriivka,” and Netflix’s doc trifecta of “The Perfect Neighbor,” “Cover-Up” and “Apocalypse in the Tropics.” There are also international stories that moved many, such as “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk,” the emotionally moving story of confronting death, “Come See Me in the Good Light,” and the ever-timely “Orwell: 2+2=5.”

Beyond that group, films such as “The Alabama Solution,” “BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions,” “Seeds,” “My Mom Jayne” and “My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow” are very much in play.

For the international feature race, the central question is scale — specifically, how dominant Neon will be. The distributor has five submissions in contention: “It Was Just an Accident” (France), “Sentimental Value” (Norway), “The Secret Agent” (Brazil), “Sirāt” (Spain) and “No Other Choice” (South Korea). Under the current system, it would be surprising if any of them missed the shortlist.

They are joined by other high-profile submissions that appear well-positioned, including Tunisia’s “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Argentina’s “Belén,” Germany’s “Sound of Falling,” Japan’s “Kokohu,” Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” and Switzerland’s “Late Shift.”

The remaining slots are likely to be filled by films from countries that reliably land on the shortlist — Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Egypt, Morocco, Iraq, India, Italy, Israel or Slovakia. Still, the possibility of a sleeper hit cannot be ruled out. Last year’s “How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies” proved that a small but beloved film can still break through.

The Music Branch has a reputation for zigging where pundits expect them to zag. Big names do not guarantee safety.

What tends to help are songs that are clearly showcased on screen, thanks in part to the Academy Screening Room’s three-minute clips highlighting their use in the films. That gives an advantage to multiple songs from the same movies, such as “Sinners,” “Wicked: For Good” and “F1.” The frontrunner, “Golden,” from Netflix’s mega-smash “KPop Demon Hunters,” is sure to be there, but without its score by Marcelo Zarvos, since it is not eligible.

“The Testament of Ann Lee,” with the hymn “Clothed by the Sun,” has last year’s reigning original score champion, Daniel Blumberg. Nick Cave’s end-credits song for “Train Dreams” could be vulnerable due to the lack of visual context, as the branch doesn’t tend to punish those types of numbers.

One near-constant remains: Diane Warren. The 15-time nominee and honorary Oscar winner is eligible again with “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless,” and history suggests betting against her inclusion is unwise.

The original score shortlist expanded to 20 slots last year, which gives repeat branch favorites ample room to return. Among the most reliable names are Nicholas Britell (“Jay Kelly”), Alexandre Desplat (“Frankenstein,” “Jurassic World Rebirth”), Ludwig Göransson (“Sinners”), Daniel Pemberton (“The Bad Guys 2,” “Eddington,” “Materialists”), Volker Bertelmann (“Ballad of a Small Player,” “A House of Dynamite”), Carter Burwell (“Good Fortune,” “Honey Don’t”), Hans Zimmer (“F1”) and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (“Tron: Ares”; “After the Hunt” is not eligible).

We’re looking at scores from Bryce Dessner (“Train Dreams”), Max Richter (“Hamnet”), Jerskin Fendrix (“Bugonia”), Daniel Lopatin (“Marty Supreme”), Jonny Greenwood (“One Battle After Another”) and John Powell and Stephen Schwartz (“Wicked: For Good”) to show up confidently.

The question is how many female composers, if any, will be included in the lineup. While representation in the category has lagged throughout history, the shortlists have been more inclusive. Viable options could consist of Oscar winner Hildur Guðnadóttir (“Hedda”), Oscar nominee Laura Karpman (“Captain America: Brave New World”), Oscar nominee and former Branch leader Lesley Barber (“Diane Warren: Relentless”), Amie Doherty (“Freakier Friday”), Emily Wells (“Plainclothes”), Kathryn Bostic (“Sarah’s Oil”) and Nala Sinephro (“The Smashing Machine”).

And then there’s casting.

With no precedent, the Academy’s newest category is also its most unpredictable. On paper, films expected to contend for best picture, such as “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” seem like early favorites. We’re also expecting “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme,” with possibilities for “Jay Kelly” and “Sentimental Value” seeming like logical choices.

But questions abound. Will voters see films like “Frankenstein,” “Wicked: For Good” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” as triumphs of casting or of production scale? Will large ensembles help films like “A House of Dynamite” and “Wake Up Dead Man”? And does the Casting Directors Branch have enough international representation to lift films such as “The Secret Agent” or “Left Handed Girl”?

Eligibility itself could complicate matters. “No Other Choice,” for instance, does not list a credited casting director, raising questions about whether it can even be nominated. Meanwhile, smaller films like “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” “Nouvelle Vague,” “Sorry, Baby” and “Blue Moon” could emerge as passion picks.

For now, the only certainty is uncertainty.

The predictions for the shortlist are below.

Casting
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Alternates: “The Plague” (IFC); “Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures); “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)

Cinematography
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirāt” (Neon)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Alternates: “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); “The Secret Agent” (Neon); “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“28 Years Later” (Sony Pictures)
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Kokuho” (Toho)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Alternates: “Hamnet” (Focus Features); “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)

Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirāt” (Neon)
“Warfare” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Alternates: “Bugonia” (Focus Features); “Marty Supreme” (A24); “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios);

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“The Lost Bus” (Apple Original Films)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Predator: Badlands” (20th Century Studios)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (DC Studios)
“Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Alternates: “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios); “The Running Man” (Paramount Pictures); “Thunderbolts*” (Marvel Studios)

Original Score
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Captain America: Brave New World” (Marvel Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Focus Features)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Tron: Ares” (20th Century Studios)
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Alternates: “28 Years Later” (Sony Pictures); “Eternity” (A24); “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Original Song
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — “Dream as One”
“Billy Idol Should be Dead” (Fremantle) — “Dying to Live”
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films) — “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) — “Dear Me”
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — “Drive”
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — “Just Keep Watching”
“Highest 2 Lowest” (A24/Apple Original Films) — “Highest 2 Lowest”
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — “Golden”
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)”
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — “I Lied to You”
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) — “Clothed by the Sun”
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — “Train Dreams”
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “The Girl in the Bubble”
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “No Place Like Home”
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) — “Zoo”

Alternates: “Stolen Tale” from “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); “He Lei Pāpahi No Lilo a me Stitch” from “Lilo and Stitch” (Walt Disney Pictures); “Took a Walk” from “The Long Walk” (Lionsgate)

Documentary Feature
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Apocalypse in the Tropics” (Netflix)
“BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions” (Rich Spirit)
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Cover-Up” (Netflix)
“It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley” (Magnolia Pictures)
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
“My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow” (Argot Pictures)
“Orwell: 2+2=5” (Neon)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
“Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk” (Kino Lorber)
“Riefenstahl” (Kino Lorber)
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Alternates: “Endless Cookie” (Obscured); “Mr. Nobody against Putin” (Bantam Films); “My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay” (HBO Documentary Films)

International Feature
“All That’s Left of You” (Watermelon Pictures) — Jordan
“Belén” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Argentina
“Homebound” (Netflix) — India
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — France
“Kokuho” (Toho) — Japan
“Left-Handed Girl” (Netflix) — Taiwan
“My Father’s Shadow” (Mubi) — United Kingdom
“No Other Choice” (Neon) — South Korea
“Palestine 36” (Watermelon Pictures) — Palestine
“The President’s Cake” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Iraq
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Brazil
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Norway
“Sirāt” (Neon) — Spain
“Sound of Falling” (Mubi) — Germany
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa) — Tunisia

Alternates: “2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Ukraine); “Father” (Slovakia); “Late Shift” (Switzerland)