OPEC expects oil demand surge in Q3, followed by tight supply-demand balance

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) anticipates a “very strong” surge in oil demand in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, followed by a tight supply-demand balance, according to a Reuters report, citing sources.

In collaboration with its allies, OPEC is set to increase oil production in response to anticipated robust demand in Q3 and a subsequent tight supply-demand balance.

According to a report by Russian media RIA, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais conveyed these projections, highlighting the group’s strategy to unwind years of output cuts designed to bolster the market, the report said.

The OPEC+ producer group, which includes Russia, has been gradually reversing previous production cuts.

OPEC+ is likely to sanction another significant output increase for September. This strategic move comes as the organisation prepares for forecasted demand growth.

During a press interaction at last week’s OPEC seminar in Vienna, Haitham Al Ghais projected an annual demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) by this year, driven by a strong global economy.

He was quoted as saying: “Especially in the third quarter, we are seeing very strong demand growth. And this is one of the main fundamental factors that is leading the group of eight countries to bring barrels back to the market.”

Al Ghais further noted that the fourth quarter is also expected to witness substantial demand growth, leading to tighter market balances.

Despite cutting its global oil demand forecasts for the next four years due to a slowdown in Chinese economic growth, OPEC has raised its longer-term outlook based on increasing consumption in developing countries.

The recently published 2025 World Oil Outlook estimates that global demand will average 105mbpd this year. This is projected to grow to an average of 106.3mbpd in 2026 and then ascend to 111.6mbpd by 2029.

“OPEC expects oil demand surge in Q3, followed by tight supply-demand balance” was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.

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