Iowa’s Joni Ernst not seeking re-election in 2026, leaves key GOP seat open

Senator Joni Ernst is not seeking re-election in 2026, with the Republican’s decision throwing Iowa wide open. The 55-year-old told people close to her that she is stepping aside, though her office has not said a word about it publicly, per CBS News. Ernst first landed in the Senate in 2014 as a fresh face who shot to attention with no-nonsense ads and a straight-talking style.

Now, with Republicans clinging to a 53–47 edge, her exit leaves her party scrambling to lock down a seat they have long counted on. A poll from state Senator Zach Wahls’ campaign already showed Ernst trailing him, and even against other Democrats she was not running far ahead, Newsweek noted. For a state that has trended red for years, those numbers are giving Democrats a major reason to go all in.

How Joni Ernst built her profile?

Ernst’s office has not commented on the matter yet. Before politics, she served in the US Army Reserves and was deployed to Iraq, credentials that boosted her credibility when she first ran. She became Iowa’s first woman in Congress, built her brand on veterans’ issues, and for the most part lined up with the GOP on key votes.

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Her 2014 ads – the ones that leaned into her farm background and “outsider” image – set the tone for how she campaigned. Over two terms, she kept that plainspoken, conservative message and carved out space in Senate leadership.

What happens next?

Analysts still give Republicans the edge to keep the Senate. The Cook Political Report lists Iowa’s race as “Likely Republican.” But Ernst bowing out changes the math. Open seats tend to draw tougher fights, and Democrats are piling in fast. At least five have already announced campaigns, per Reuters.

Iowa isn’t the swing state it once was. Trump carried it comfortably in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans have tightened their grip locally. Even so, without Ernst on the ballot, Democrats see their best shot in years.

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For Republicans, it is about finding a candidate who can hold the ground Ernst is leaving. For Democrats, it is about proving Iowa isn’t a lost cause.

FAQs

Why is Joni Ernst not seeking re-election?

She has privately told confidants she won’t seek another term, though no official reason has been provided.

Who could replace Joni Ernst in the Senate?

At least five Democrats have announced campaigns, while Republicans are expected to recruit a strong candidate to defend the seat.

What is the current balance of power in the Senate?

Republicans hold a 53–47 majority.

When was Joni Ernst first elected?

She was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 after serving in the Iowa state legislature and the US Army Reserves.