Gulf petrostates rush to export crude amid fears of US strike on Iran

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Petrostates in the Middle East are rushing to export crude as they draw up contingency plans for potential US strikes on Iran that could upend oil shipments from the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia has shipped about 7mn barrels a day this month, its highest since 2023, while oil exports from the UAE are set to hit a record 3.5mn b/d in February, according to data company Kpler.

Iranian officials have threatened to escalate any conflict if US President Donald Trump decides to strike Iran. That could involve the Islamic republic trying to prevent oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which about a fifth of global seaborne crude passes. Such an event would immediately hit buyers and sellers and wreak havoc on global oil markets.

Representatives from Iran and the US are meeting in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of talks to avert American strikes, but the Middle East’s biggest oil producers are already enacting contingency plans that would allow oil to continue to flow to consumers — at least in the short term.

Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at consultancy Energy Aspects, described the plans as “precautionary steps” to ensure that the world’s biggest oil producer Saudi Aramco and others “can maintain supply to customers even if geopolitical tensions spill over to oil markets”.

Representatives of Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s energy ministries did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Aramco declined to comment.

Trump, who has assembled the biggest military build-up in the Middle East since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, warned Tehran last week it had a “maximum” 15 days to reach a deal or “bad things will happen”.

By bringing the crude closer to demand centres, Middle Eastern producers are looking to soften the impact from any disruptions. All the states lining the Gulf rely on hydrocarbon sales for the normal functioning of their economies.

But as the biggest oil producers in the Opec cartel that are also best placed to raise production, any move by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase their output will be closely watched by the market.

Saudi Arabia followed a similar strategy last year ahead of Israel’s attack on Iran. At the time, the kingdom said the additional exported barrels would not affect global markets because they were unavailable to buyers and so fell outside the “marketed crude supply” delivered to its customers.

Market-watchers view the latest export push as the Gulf states repeating this strategy. “June is the playbook and at that time [Saudi Arabia] just increased production,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

“It’s a balancing act that they rarely do, but it underscores the gravity of the situation we’re in. They’re not playing games and opportunistically hiking production,” he said.

Fellow Opec member Iran has also rushed to send out as much oil as possible ahead of a possible attack. Crude and condensate loadings rose to 2.2mn b/day in February, 50 per cent more than the prior three-month average, said Kpler.