We came across a bullish thesis on First Solar, Inc. on r/Valueinvesting by u/sagotici. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on FSLR. First Solar, Inc.’s share was trading at $241.36 as of January 13th. FSLR’s trailing and forward P/E were 18.25 and 10.43 , respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
First Solar, Inc., a solar technology company, provides photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions in the United States, France, India, Chile, and internationally. The company manufactures and sells PV solar modules with a thin film semiconductor technology that provides a lower-carbon alternative to conventional crystalline silicon PV solar modules.
First Solar is often misunderstood by the market, which tends to frame the stock as dependent on residential solar incentives like the Investment Tax Credit, even though that program is becoming less relevant to the company’s actual economics. The real driver is Section 45X, which provides manufacturing tax credits, allowing First Solar to earn roughly $0.17 per watt simply for producing panels in the United States, creating a durable margin advantage that is independent of rooftop demand.
The company is positioned squarely in utility scale solar, where long term cost per kilowatt hour matters far more than headline price per watt. This distinction is critical as most new demand is coming from large scale projects tied to data centers, many of which are being built in hot regions such as Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. In these environments, traditional silicon panels lose efficiency as temperatures rise, while First Solar’s cadmium telluride technology performs materially better, generating 5% to 10% more energy annually and resulting in a superior levelized cost of energy over a multi decade lifespan.
Concerns around project delays such as the Esmeralda cancellation, are also misplaced, as the fragmentation into multiple smaller projects has increased urgency among developers who cannot afford customs delays tied to Chinese panel imports.
First Solar benefits further from having no exposure to polysilicon supply chains, which are heavily concentrated in China and subject to forced labor enforcement at the US borders. Its closed loop recycling program, which recovers over 90% of semiconductor materials, reinforces both cost and regulatory advantages.
Looking ahead, the acquisition of Evolar and ongoing tandem perovskite pilots point to a credible path toward materially higher efficiency in the next generation of panels. With its backlog sold out through 2029, strong margins, and clear focus on utility scale deployment where demand is structurally growing, First Solar is positioned to benefit even as commodity panel prices continue to compress across the broader solar industry.
finance.yahoo.com
#Solar #FSLR #Bull #Case #Theory
