(Bloomberg) — With Federal Reserve officials signaling an extended hold on interest rates, investors and economists will look to Chair Jerome Powell this week for clues on what might eventually prompt the central bank to make a move, and when.
Most Read from Bloomberg
A fourth straight meeting without a cut could provoke another tirade from President Donald Trump. But policymakers have been clear: Before they can make a move they need the White House to resolve the big question marks around tariffs, immigration and taxes. Israel’s attacks on Iranian nuclear sites have also introduced another element of uncertainty for the global economy.
At the same time, the generally healthy, if slowly cooling, US economy has few expecting a rate move any time soon. Investors are betting the central bank won’t lower borrowing costs until September at the earliest, according to pricing in futures contracts.
“The safest path to take in that situation, when there is no urgency to cut rates right now, is to just sit on your hands,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Policymakers gather June 17-18. They’ll release a statement at 2:00 PM Washington time, and Powell is scheduled to take questions from reporters 30 minutes later.
Difficult Choices
The president’s tariffs are widely expected to raise prices and slow growth, risks that officials flagged in their last post-meeting statement. That could eventually force the Fed to make a difficult choice as the economy pulls them in opposite directions.
“I don’t think at this point there’s anything to be alarmed about,” said David Hoag, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. “But the longer we have uncertainty — for the consumer, for companies in terms of planning — the more concerned I’ll get about the fundamentals of the economy deteriorating.”
So far, however, the economy isn’t flashing warning signs that would prompt the Fed to intervene.
The unemployment rate has held steady for three months even as job growth has slowed, in part because a sharp decline in immigration is also lowering the supply of workers. The longer the jobless rate remains stable, the longer the Fed can hold rates as a defense against potentially higher inflation.
Yet price data has also provided little to worry about. Underlying inflation rose by less than expected in May for the fourth straight month. Treasuries rose last week on the news, bolstered by wagers on more than one rate cut this year. The yield on two-year notes, most sensitive to the Fed’s policy, declined by more than seven basis points on the week to 3.96%.
finance.yahoo.com
#Fed #Hold #Leaves #Wall #Street #Cut #Interest #Rates
