Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Corpay, Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by JohnnyFinance. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CPAY. Corpay, Inc.’s share was trading at $296.27 as of December 1st. CPAY’s trailing andforward P/E were 20.13 and 12.02 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Corpay, Inc. (NYSE: CPAY), formerly Fleetcor, is a leading B2B payments company that operates a collection of highly profitable payment issuers and networks. Led by CEO and Chairman Ron Clarke since 2000, the Company has transformed from a regional fuel card business into a global B2B payments powerhouse, generating ~19% annualized shareholder returns from 2010–2024.

Clarke’s alignment with shareholders is strong, owning ~5% of CPAY, currently worth ~$1.2 billion. The business has consistently delivered ~13% annual growth in revenue, EBITDA, and EPS from 2014–2024, although the stock has underperformed due to a multiple contraction from ~24x forward earnings in 2014 to ~13.5x 2026E today.

CPAY shares are attractively priced at ~$330, implying 13.5x 2026E earnings, while the Company’s intrinsic value is estimated at $400–$490, offering a 20–33% margin of safety. The thesis centers on CPAY as a “compounder on sale,” expected to grow per-share earnings 15–20% annually, with upside from potential multiple expansion to 16–20x earnings.

The Company is positioned to benefit from secular trends in digital B2B payments, inflation-sensitive revenues, and a weakening U.S. dollar, as ~50% of revenue comes from international markets. Free cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation, including $5.6 billion in buybacks from 2020–2024, further support upside.

Additional optionality arises from CPAY’s cross-border business and stablecoin adoption, which could accelerate growth. Key risks include integration of the $2.4 billion Alpha Group acquisition, regulatory compliance in cross-border payments, future M&A execution, and secular pressures on legacy fuel card businesses.

Mitigants include CPAY’s strong M&A track record, aligned management, and initiatives to monetize emerging opportunities like EV charging. Catalysts for upside include successful execution of the business plan, accretive M&A, capital allocation, and stablecoin adoption. Overall, CPAY offers compelling risk/reward, combining strong fundamentals, secular tailwinds, and undervaluation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Global Payments Inc. (GPN) by Excelsior Capital in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s consistent EPS growth, strong cash flow, and strategic focus on SMBs. The stock has depreciated approximately by 34.88% since our coverage due to broader fintech competition. The thesis still stands as GPN executes operational efficiencies. JohnnyFinance shares a similar but emphasizes Corpay’s (CPAY) B2B payments growth, disciplined capital allocation, and optionality from cross-border payments.