Contract premium shrinks as truckload market reprices higher

Shippers watching their routing guides and budgets face a new reality in 2026: costs are climbing even as volumes lag. That’s according to the latest quarterly U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index – Rates Edition. The report, produced in collaboration with DAT Freight & Analytics, showed a freight market where pricing power is shifting toward carriers through capacity discipline rather than surging demand.

Spot rates reached $2.01 per mile in February, rebounding from $1.65 in November 2025. Contract rates ticked up to $2.12 per mile from $1.99 over the same period — marking a fourth consecutive month of increases across both pricing mechanisms.

“What we’re seeing in early 2026 is a freight market beginning to rebalance, with spot rates improving modestly while contract pricing has remained relatively steady,” said Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics.

The spot market registered the sharpest recovery. After bottoming at $1.57 per mile in May 2025, spot linehaul climbed roughly 28 percent through February 2026 — a $0.44 increase from the low. Contract pricing followed but moved far less dramatically, rising from $1.99 to $2.12 per mile over the same period, about a 6.5 percent gain.

The inflection point arrived in December 2025. Spot linehaul jumped from $1.65 to $1.91 per mile — a 15.76 percent month-over-month increase that coincided with a 14 percent rise in spot activity. Contract linehaul also moved higher, climbing just under 3 percent, signaling that the repricing impulse in transactional markets was filtering into contract outcomes.

“The Rates Edition is a timely warning for shippers and carriers: pricing power is shifting with tighter capacity, not stronger volume,” said Darlene Laferriere, accounts payable analyst at Charles River Labs. “We’re partnering with core carriers and stress-testing budgets as the contract premium compresses.”

The year-over-year data highlighted just how unusual this setup is. From March 2025 through February 2026, spot linehaul increased about 23.3 percent while contract linehaul rose roughly 5 percent. Yet volumes moved the opposite direction: spot volume fell approximately 3.7 percent and contract volume dropped about 22.1 percent.

That divergence is the core story. Pricing strengthened even as activity — particularly on the contracted side — remained under pressure. The market behaved as though capacity was being managed more tightly than demand was growing. This appears consistent with a supply-led shift where carriers protect yield and become more selective about the freight they accept.

Another major development is the rapid compression of the gap between contract and spot rates. A year ago, the contract premium stood at about $0.39 per mile. By March 2026, it had narrowed to roughly $0.11 — a compression of approximately $0.28.

This narrowing suggests spot rates are catching up to contract levels, reducing the cushion shippers rely on when balancing tender acceptance, routing guides and fallback capacity.

A key takeaway is what didn’t drive the move: fuel. Fuel costs increased only about 2.5 percent year over year, far smaller than the rise in spot linehaul. That reinforces the cost pressure was primarily a linehaul and capacity story, not simply a surcharge effect.

Industry commentary supports this framing. Large truckload carriers described demand as stable but “unspectacular,” while emphasizing capacity discipline, selective freight acceptance and pricing focus as the tightening mechanism.

The data depicts a truckload market that repriced higher ahead of any demand-driven recovery. Spot led the reset, contracts followed, and volumes remained under pressure while the contract premium compressed sharply.

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