From HAL 9000 in “2001: A Space Odyssey” (1968) to Skynet in the “Terminator” films, AI has been portrayed as an existential threat to humankind in the movies. But when it comes to handicapping film awards races, AI and other cutting-edge tech are our friends. Gone are the days when pundits had to rely on time-consuming analysis of historical precedents and critical trends and spitball takes on showbiz community consensus to make their picks. Now, we have an array of free digital tools at our disposal, from chatbots to the crypto-powered prediction platform Polymarket, to do it for us.
We’re going to set the machines loose on the four major guild awards — DGA, PGA, WGA and SAG (rebranded as the Actor Awards) — and have them separate the long shots from the sure things. Because space is limited, the analysis will be applied only to Oscar-eligible narrative features, calculated on the morning after the Golden Globe Awards, held on Jan. 11.
The 32nd Annual Actor Awards
March 1
For the Actors, we’ll use Polymarket, a platform where money is wagered on the outcomes of future events. It could be argued that its insights for entertainment awards are rather meaningless, because they’re calculated using bets placed by the general public, not from a survey of voters or pros. But pundits have been applying a “horse race” mentality to the awards season for decades, and horse races are handicapped by bettors, not jockeys and other equestrian professionals, so why not apply the same standards here?
First, an explanation of how it works. If Polymarket shares are priced at, say, 35¢, it implies a 35% chance of winning. Because it creates individual markets for each nominee (e.g., “Will Leonardo DiCaprio win?”), the crowd’s wagers push the probabilities higher or lower, independent of others in the same category, so the sum total does not have to equal 100%.
At 5 a.m. on the morning after the Golden Globes, where “One Battle After Another” topped all other features with four wins, Polymarket gave the film a 52% implied probability that it would win the Actor for outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture. That number was down 8% from its peak probability, reached in the hours before the Globes telecast, but still far greater than its closest competitors, “Sinners” (36%), “Marty Supreme” (9.3%), “Frankenstein” (7%)
and “Hamnet” (2%).
At the same time, Polymarket gave “One Battle” star Leonardo DiCaprio only a 12% probability of winning outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role in a motion picture, trailing Timothée Chalamet/“Marty Supreme” (61%), who won a Globe for his performance, Ethan Hawke/“Blue Moon” (19.5%), Michael B. Jordan/“Sinners” (14%) and Jesse Plemons/“Bugonia” (13%).
The morning after taking home a Globe for “Hamnet,” Jessie Buckley was completely dominating the race for outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role in a motion picture according to Polymarket, with a 86% probability of winning, 79% higher than closest competitor Rose Byrne, who won a globe for
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.” Chase Infiniti from “One Battle” and Emma Stone of “Bugonia” brought up the rear with 5% and
2%, respectively.
Polymarket judged the supporting categories to be much closer. The males were led by “Frankenstein” monster Jacob Elordi (47%), and Sean Penn (32%) and Benicio del Toro (25%) from “One Battle,” with Paul Mescal/“Hamnet” (5.8%) and Miles Caton/“Sinners” (1%) trailing far behind. Teyana Taylor/“One Battle” (45%) and Amy Madigan/“Weapons” (35%) were far out in front of the other nominees in the female category: Ariana Grande/“Wicked: For Good” (9%), Wunmi Mosaku/“Sinners” (8%) and Odessa A’zion/“Marty Supreme” (7%).
Categories for the three other major guild awards are not on Polymarket, so instead we’ll use AI chatbots Grok, Gemini and ChatGPT to handicap their odds based on critical consensus and social media chatter.
The 78th Annual DGA Awards
Feb. 7
The AI chatbots agree that “One Battle’s” Paul Thomas Anderson is the runaway favorite to win the award for outstanding directorial achievement in theatrical feature film. Grok referred to him as a “clear frontrunner” with an “estimated 40%-50% implied probability based on aggregated predictions.” Grok and ChatGPT noted his sweep of best director honors from major critic groups (e.g., NSFC, LAFCA), while Gemini echoed Grok’s observation that he could be seen as overdue after two previous nominations (“There Will Be Blood,” “Licorice Pizza”) without a win.
Grok labeled Ryan Coogler a “strong contender” for “Sinners,” with an estimated 25%-30% implied probability, and agreed with the other chatbots that he’s boosted by his strong performance with critics’ awards, heavy social media chatter and the allure of his potential to make history as the first Black helmer to win.
The odds of Chloé Zhao — a previous DGA Award-winner for “Nomadland” — taking home the prize for “Hamnet” were deemed “mid-tier” by Grok, with an estimated 15%-20% implied probability, while ChatGPT described the movie as “a dark horse with momentum.” Gemini noted that critical consensus has been “very positive,” but social media buzz has been only moderate, mostly centering on the performances of its two leads (Buckley and Paul Mescal).
Grok said the odds of Guillermo del Toro, another previous winner (“The Shape of Water”), prevailing with “Frankenstein” are “respectable,” with an estimated 10%-15% implied probability, while Gemini judged the critical consensus for the film to be “strong” and ChatGPT characterized him as a “steady underdog.”
Rounding out the nominee pool is Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme.” ChapGPT calls him “the most unpredictable contender” with “less awards momentum compared with the others, though fandom buzz
is respectable.”
The 37th Annual PGA Awards
Feb. 28
Like the DGA, the Producers Guild has a single theatrical feature film category (Darryl F. Zanuck Award for outstanding producer of theatrical motion pictures). The difference is that it has 10 nominees, but the frontrunners picked by all three AI chatbots are the same five as the DGA, in slightly different order. Gemini refers to them as “The Heavyweight” (“One Battle After Another”), “The Direct Competitor” (“Sinners”), “The Prestige Pick” (“Hamnet”), “The Trendsetter” (“Marty Supreme”) and “The Craft Leader” (“Frankenstein”). Grok gives the rest of the field (“Bugonia,” “Sentimental Value,” “Train Dreams,” “Weapons” and “F1”) a 2%-7% probability of winning, noting the PGA’s preferential ballot favors broad consensus picks like “One Battle” and “Sinners.”
The 78th Annual WGA Awards
March 8
The Writers Guild of America doesn’t announce its nominations until Jan. 27, so there’s a bit more guesswork involved for prognosticators, including the chatbots, but the number one and two contenders mirror the other guild awards.
“One Battle,” which Anderson loosely based on Thomas Pynchon’s 1990 novel “Vineland,” is the front-runner for adapted screenplay. Grok gives it 75% odds of winning, while Gemini says it has total “lock” status in terms of critical consensus. It’s followed by fellow Globes winner “Hamnet,” which Grok says has 60% odds of winning, and ChatGPT notes it places high in internet users’ predictions. In the original screenplay category, the runaway favorite is Coogler for “Sinners,” given 80% odds of winning by Grok, with Gemini noting that the “WGA is historically a place where high-concept, auteur-driven genre films perform well.” Grok has it followed by Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme” (60%) and Zach Cregger for “Weapons” (50%).
The bottom line: until the bots start refusing to open the pod doors, literally or figuratively, prognosticators can trust that “One Battle” and “Sinners” are poised to dominate the guild awards.
variety.com
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