Quantum computing is an emerging industry that is viewed as having massive potential. Although commercial applications for quantum computing haven’t arrived yet, that’s more to do with the current capabilities of the technology than the workloads. If a company could create a viable quantum computer, that company would instantly be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. But that’s not where we are yet.
We’re still some distance from quantum computing becoming mainstream, but we’re getting closer. Two stocks that often get discussed as great quantum computing investment options are IonQ(NYSE: IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum(NYSE: QBTS). Each of these companies is taking a different approach to the technology, and each has a viable path ahead. If everything works out, each stock could deliver 1,000% or greater gains, but they have steep hills to climb to get there.
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There are numerous techniques that can be employed to create the qubits that sit at the heart of every quantum computer. IonQ uses the trapped ion approach, which uses lasers to cool isolated individual atoms to near absolute zero — conditions that cause their behavior to be governed by quantum mechanical principles, allowing them to be harnessed to process data in ways that classical computers can’t.
D-Wave Quantum’s machines use a quantum annealing technique, which finds some of the lowest energy states in systems. In the context of computing, that means that they find optimal or nearly optimal solutions to complex problems. This makes quantum annealing systems ideal for addressing optimization and sampling problems, which make up a large share of the expected use cases for quantum computing.
Nobody knows which quantum computing technique will end up being the most relevant. It might not be either of these. That’s why spreading out your bets in the quantum computing realm is a good idea. However, if one of these companies creates a viable technology and captures a large share of the quantum computing market, the stocks could have immense upside.
In mid-2025, McKinsey & Company published a projection that by 2035, quantum computing could be worth $28 billion to $72 billion annually. That’s a huge market, and if either of these two companies can capture a majority of it, their stocks could be worth a ton.
If we take the midpoint of that projection, $50 billion, and assume the winner will capture a 90% market share (similar to how Nvidia has captured a 90% market share in AI computing), that could lead to $45 billion in annual revenue.
For reference, AMD is expected to generate $47 billion in annual revenue during 2026, and its market cap is just shy of $400 billion. D-Wave and IonQ have market caps of $7.5 billion and $13.4 billion, respectively. If either company could generate $45 billion in annual revenue, a rise in value to a $400 billion market cap would amount to a 5,233% gain for D-Wave or a 2,885% gain for IonQ.
That would require one company to be a massive winner and another to wind up a loser, but in either case, a 28x or 52x return on one investment would more than offset even a 100% loss on the other if you start out with equal positions in both.
This is obviously a bullish projection and would require a lot to go right for either IonQ or D-Wave. Furthermore, these companies would have to outperform some stiff competition to achieve such success. I’m not sure if they can, but there’s immense upside potential for both of these stocks if they’re successful. However, the risk is high, and investors should keep their initial position sizes fairly small. Even if you start with a position that makes up only 1% of your portfolio, a 2,000% or greater return over time could turn that investment into a major driver of gains for your portfolio.
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Keithen Drury has positions in IonQ and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, IonQ, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
