Traders on prediction market Polymarket have doubled the implied odds of the Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurring by year-end, turning one of the platform’s stranger contracts into a better performer than bitcoin.
The market, titled “Will Jesus return in 2026,” traded around 4 cents on Friday, implying a roughly 4% chance. That’s up from a low of about 1.8% on Jan. 3, meaning the “Yes” side has gained more than 120% in just over a month.
Bitcoin, in contrast, has been moving in the opposite direction. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 18% this year for reasons ranging from concerns that quantum computing could break its encryption to speculation about a hedge fund blow-up and broader risk-off pressure across global markets.
Such price action has left even meme-like prediction contracts looking resilient by comparison.
Polymarket markets work like binary options. A “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn’t, with the trading price reflecting the crowd’s implied probability.
A trader who buys “Yes” at 4 cents is effectively paying that amount for a shot at $1. Someone buying “No” at 96 cents is betting the event will not happen and stands to earn 4 cents if the contract resolves “No.”
If “No” trades in the mid-to-high 90s for long stretches, it creates the appearance of a slow, steady gain for anyone willing to park money there, even though the trade is ultimately binary and can still swing sharply.
The contract resolves to “Yes” if the Second Coming occurs by Dec. 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, and to “No” otherwise. Polymarket says the resolution will be based on a consensus of credible sources, a clause that highlights why traders treat the market more as a novelty than a serious forecast.
The price action offers a snapshot of how prediction markets can behave like microcap tokens. With relatively limited liquidity, even small bursts of buying can push probabilities sharply higher, creating headline-grabbing percentage gains.
The rally also reflects Polymarket’s growing role as a real-time barometer for internet attention, where everything from elections to celebrity gossip to religious prophecies can be traded in the same interface.
As such, the “Jesus trade” remains a tiny sideshow. But in a year where bitcoin has struggled to find a stable footing, it’s also a reminder that the weirdest corners of crypto are sometimes the only ones going up.
www.coindesk.com
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