After Iris Dena sinking, all eyes now on Iranian military tanker Busheir in Colombo port

After a US Virginia-class SSN sank the Iranian corvette Dena on the high seas, 50 nautical miles off the coast of Galle, all eyes are now on the Iranian military tanker Busheir, which is anchored 10 nautical miles off the outer anchorage of Colombo Port. While Dena was sunk by a torpedo with a 20-nautical-mile range fired from a nuclear attack submarine in international waters, Busheir is well within Sri Lankan territorial waters.

With Iran attempting to target US strike groups and oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, IRIS Dena and 17 other warships, including Russian Kilo-class submarines, were sunk by the US Navy in an effort to defang the Iranian maritime threat to warships and international shipping. For those retired navy officers and armchair strategists who believe that India should have protected IRIS Dena on the high seas and in international waters, the fact remains that India has no locus standi, as it is neither at war with the US nor with Iran. After Iran indiscriminately targeted ships using kamikaze drones launched from warships and tankers, Dena became a legitimate war target.

“It is all out war between Iran US. Iranian ill-fated vessel knew. Just as Iranians are targetting civilians in Gulf countries including airports, Dena was a legitimate target. But loss of life is always unfortunate,” said an Admiral.

The weakened Iranian regime, after the decimation of its top leadership on February 28, is trying to expand the conflict by attacking Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, and even Turkey for allowing US bases on their territory. Essentially, the Tehran regime and its proxies are presenting Sunni countries with a binary choice: either face attacks for standing with the US or exercise the option of expelling US forces from their countries. Iran has attempted to make an example of targeting the UAE, as it is geographically the closest to Iran and is a flourishing economy with rapidly growing strategic clout in the region. However, the Iranian offensive has largely been unsuccessful, as the UAE and other Gulf countries have managed to neutralise Iranian drones and missiles, whose numbers are diminishing by the day as Tehran’s arsenal dries up.

Even though the US and Israel have been able to pulverise Iran using first missiles and now laser-guided bombs, the prospect of regime change in Tehran remains daunting, as the population tends to become nationalistic when attacked by a foreign power. Furthermore, the IRGC and the Quds Force are still active on the ground, as evidenced by ongoing air and air-defence activity in Iran. Given that Iran is still firing missiles and drones as far as Turkey and Cyprus, it is clear that the IRGC has decentralised command and control, with various plans ready for missile-firing units even before the first Israeli attack on February 28.

The most likely outcome of the current conflict, which may continue for at least four weeks, is that US and Iranian negotiators will come to the table, resuming dialogue with Tehran on capping its nuclear and missile programme. There are hardly any other options available to Tehran, as its two allies—China and Russia—have limited themselves to statements and stayed away from the conflict. China has a naval task force (the 48th Anti-Piracy Escort Force) present off the Gulf of Aden, and Russian ships, including frigates, corvettes, and tankers, are scheduled to enter the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) next month. So far, nobody has intervened on behalf of Iran.