Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US – will meet on Sunday in the remote town of Kananaskis, Alberta, nestled in the foothills of the Canadian Rockies, for three days of intense discussions.
This will be the 51st G7 summit meeting. The first took place in 1975 in Rambouillet, France. Back then, it was known as the G6 meeting, as Canada did not become a member until the following year.
Russia joined the forum in 1998, making it the G8, but was effectively expelled in 2014, following its annexation of Crimea. Since then, the forum has been known as the G7.
Tensions at this year’s gathering, taking place June 15-17, are likely to be high for many reasons.
Intense discussions are expected about the unfolding crisis in the Middle East after Israel carried out massive strikes on military and nuclear sites in Iran on Friday. This year’s meeting also takes place against the backdrop of aggressive trade tariffs set – and then paused for all countries except China, which has now reached a deal with the US – by US President Donald Trump earlier this year.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney may also still be reeling from comments by Trump that Canada should become the 51st US state. In May, Carney stated that Canada was “not for sale … ever” during a meeting with Trump at the White House.
The G7 represents 44 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) but only 10 percent of the world’s population. Within the group, the US is by far the largest economy. Having campaigned for the presidency on an “America First” message, Trump has frequently expressed displeasure about how much it contributes to global affairs.
At the last G7 summit attended by Trump in 2018, his national security adviser, John Bolton, posted on social media: “Just another G7 where other countries expect America will always be their bank. The President made it clear today. No more.”
So, who is coming this year and what will they be talking about?
Who is attending the G7 meeting this year?
Canada is hosting this year’s G7 meeting – it’s the seventh time it has assumed the presidency of the group. Besides leaders of the G7 countries and the EU, which is also represented at the summit, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has invited several heads of state from non-G7 countries as guests.
These include Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who confirmed her attendance on Monday after saying in May that she was undecided, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was invited, but it is unclear whether he will attend.
The invitation for Modi has raised eyebrows in Canada. Relations between India and Canada have been strained since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of assassinating a Sikh separatist leader in Canada in 2023. The World Sikh Organisation said Carney’s invitation was a “betrayal of Sikh Canadians”, and the Sikh Federation of Canada called it “a grave insult”.
But Carney, who is trying to diversify Canadian trade away from the US, defended his decision, saying it makes sense for the G7 to invite India, since it is the world’s fifth-largest economy and is at the heart of a number of trading supply chains.
“In addition, bilaterally, we have now agreed, importantly, to continued law enforcement dialogue, so there’s been some progress on that, that recognises issues of accountability. I extended the invitation to Prime Minister Modi in that context,” Carney told reporters in Ottawa.
In March, Carney also invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to this week’s gathering.
Leaders of Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and South Korea are also expected to attend.
Will they discuss US trade tariffs?
During his current tenure as president, Trump has imposed broad tariffs on every member of the G7, as well as on most other countries around the world, sparking a global trade war in the process. Trump says he wants to reverse large trade deficits between the US and other countries.
However, it is unlikely this issue will be formally addressed during G7 discussions as Carney will primarily be trying to prevent a fallout over trade between the member states, many of whom are still scrambling to secure trade deals with the US.
The UK reached the first trade agreement with the US in May, when it agreed to reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1 percent to 1.8 percent and provide greater access for US goods. In return, the US dropped higher tariffs, leaving only its universal 10-percent tariff in place.
Both the EU and Japan are hoping to strike their own agreements before the July 9 end of Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs.
Trump also had a rocky relationship with the G7 during his first term as US president and left the 2018 summit – also in Canada – in a huff. At the end of what was thought to be a successful gathering, Trump wrote on social media that he had directed his staff not to sign the final communique – the statement G7 countries issue in a show of unity at the end of the summit – and called then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “very dishonest and weak”.
Even though the communique is never usually formally “signed”, the incident pointed to Trump’s unpredictability, experts say.
John Kirton of the G7 Research Group, based at the University of Toronto, said Trump is less likely to cause a scene this year. He told Indian channel NDTV World that Carney is on better terms with Trump and noted that the US is due to host the G7 in 2027. “He doesn’t want to kill the G7 golden goose before he can produce the ‘biggest, best summit ever’ for the whole world stage two years from now,” Kirton said.
So, what will be on the agenda for this G7 meeting?
The G7 2025 summit website lists three core actions on the agenda for this year’s discussions: “Protecting our communities around the world”; “Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition”; and “Securing the partnerships of the future”.
But G7 leaders are likely to focus on the unfolding conflict between Israel and Iran.
If this does not dominate discussions entirely, other items on the agenda at this year’s G7 summit are likely to be global trade issues, the Russia-Ukraine war and China.
Israel-Iran crisis
Julia Kulik, director of strategic initiatives for the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto’s Trinity College, said conversations on global peace that would have focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel’s war on Gaza will now likely pivot to Iran.
“There will be tough questions from other leaders around the table to Donald Trump about what went wrong with the negotiations and about what he’s going to do to get Israel to de-escalate before things get worse,” Kulik told Al Jazeera.
The G7 “was designed to be a crisis response group with the ability to act and adapt quickly to international challenges … so in some ways it’s good they’re meeting this weekend as they’ll have the ability to respond quickly”, she added.
Robert Rogowsky, professor of trade and economic diplomacy at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said there is no way G7 members can avoid the subject of the latest crisis in the Middle East. “That attack, counterattack, and the US declaration that it was not involved and its warning about staying away from American assets as targets is likely to be the first thing discussed, as it now creates the possibility of a real, all-out war in the Middle East. The major neighbouring parties will have to decide how to align themselves.” Rogowsky said.
Global trade
While Carney is hoping to cover uncontroversial themes, such as building friendlier global supply chains for materials like critical minerals, China may also be a focus of discussions.
Following a meeting of G7 finance ministers in Canada in May, the group issued a joint communique saying they would continue to monitor “nonmarket policies and practices” which contribute to imbalances in global trade. The statement did not mention China, but “nonmarket policies” often refer to export subsidies and currency policies that the Trump administration says provide an advantage in international trade. The statement was seen as a swipe at China’s trade practices, in particular its lending practices, which many see as adding debt for poorer countries.
Leaders of the G7 are also expected to discuss concerns about rising tensions between China and Taiwan in the East and South China Seas, as well as China’s expanding military presence there.
Russia-Ukraine war
A joint statement of G7 foreign ministers following an earlier meeting in Quebec in mid-March expressed strong support for Kyiv. It said finance ministers had “discussed imposing further costs on Russia” if Moscow did not agree to a ceasefire.
The UK and the EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia in May, but Trump, who has been conducting discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the US would not follow suit.
Sanctions against Russia and achieving a ceasefire may, therefore, also be a focus of discussions this week.
Global development
This could be a thorny issue.
Global development, particularly in African countries, has long been a primary focus of G7 discussions. However, this year, the US has made clear that it wishes to de-prioritise economic and humanitarian assistance for other countries. It has largely shuttered the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and says it plans large cuts to funding for other health and development initiatives overseas, as well.
What meetings could take place on the sidelines of the G7 summit?
US-EU
Donald Trump is expected to hold meetings with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba. Both leaders are eager to agree on a trade deal with Trump as soon as possible to avoid reciprocal tariffs, due to come back into place following a pause in early July.
US-Canada-Mexico
Trump, Carney and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum may also hold a separate meeting of North American leaders on trade and border security. In February, Trump postponed his planned 25-percent import tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods at the last minute. Canada’s then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Sheinbaum both agreed to increase border security to prevent the trafficking of drugs and migrants into the US, averting a trade war. Trump says he has been particularly concerned about the flow of the drug fentanyl into the US from both Canada and Mexico.
US-South Africa
South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has told reporters he will have a second meeting with Trump during the G7 summit, following the two leaders’ meeting in Washington, DC, on May 21, when Trump accused South Africa of “genocide” against white farmers. Earlier in May, 59 white “refugees” were flown from South Africa to the US as part of a relocation plan for white South Africans devised by the Trump administration.
www.aljazeera.com
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