The war that should have been avoided

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After years of threats and posturing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has finally backed his rhetoric and launched a large-scale military assault against Iran. Waves of Israeli air strikes have targeted the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme — striking Natanz, one of its main uranium enrichment plants — and its missile factories, and killed two top military commanders.

The veteran Israeli leader says his goal is to prevent the regime acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel has long considered an existential threat. But by launching such a devastating assault on Iran he is igniting the full-blown war the world has feared since Hamas’s horrific October 7 2023 attack triggered regional hostilities.

He is gambling with the fate of the Middle East when the focus should be on US diplomatic efforts to secure a deal with Iran to curb its nuclear activities. But Netanyahu has long sought military action over diplomacy. It is difficult to see how the indirect talks between Washington and Tehran can survive.

Tehran, ever more vulnerable and backed into a corner, is more likely to retaliate than negotiate in a bid to raise the stakes. That increases the risk of US troops being dragged into combat and conflict spilling over borders if the Islamic regime fears for its survival.

The world is rightly fearful. Oil prices jumped amid fears that Iran could seek to disrupt the flow of crude through the Strait of Hormuz or target energy assets in Gulf states. This would inflict more pain on an uneasy global economy. More important is the potential devastation of yet more war in a region that has endured 20 months of the most destructive and deadly conflict in decades.

Israel’s European allies and Gulf leaders must use whatever influence they have to try to rein Netanyahu in and bring Iran back to the table. The key here is the US president, the one leader with significant leverage over Israel. Donald Trump returned to the White House promising to end the war in Gaza and bring peace to the Middle East. But on his watch, an emboldened Netanyahu has escalated the offensive in Gaza and now opened an even bigger front.

In public, Trump has said he prefers a deal to resolve the nuclear crisis and US officials have insisted they had no part in the first day of Israeli assault. But he seems to have acquiesced to Netanyahu’s assault. On Friday, Trump warned Iran of “even more brutal” attacks, as he urged Tehran to “make a deal”. He noted that a 60-day deadline he gave the republic to reach an accord had passed, while saying “now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”

Trump may have calculated that he can use Israel to pressure Tehran to give up its nuclear programme. He may discover that Netanyahu has used him to drag the US into a war with Iran.

The Islamic regime, facing its gravest threat in decades, should grab whatever diplomatic rope still exists. For too long, it has wilfully ignored the urgency of the world’s concern over its nuclear programme, provocatively expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched close to weapons-grade levels to become a nuclear threshold state. A malign influence across the region, it must realise its path is unsustainable and be willing to compromise to reach a nuclear deal.

But Trump, too, has a chance to show responsible leadership. The roots of the crisis can be traced to his flawed decision in 2018 to withdraw the US unilaterally from an accord that severely limited Iran’s nuclear activities, and with which it was complying. He must realise that it is in his and America’s interests to bring this conflict to a swift end. That means holding back Netanyahu with genuine threats of consequences. Being a friend to Israel should not mean giving Netanyahu a carte blanche to wage endless wars that keep the Middle East, including Israel itself, in turmoil.