Reform UK gains support in areas with high child poverty

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Support for Reform UK has surged in areas with higher rates of child poverty, underlining the right-wing populist party’s potential to connect with disillusioned voters in Labour’s heartlands. 

A Financial Times analysis of election projections by pollster More in Common shows that the vast majority of constituencies where Reform is expected to perform well have higher than average child poverty rates.

More in Common has projected that Nigel Farage’s party would win 180 seats if its strong polling performance was replicated at a general election. Of those, 135 have poverty rates above the national average of 31 per cent, the FT found.

Labour currently holds 121 of these seats, reflecting Reform’s growing support among left-leaning voters who do not think the government is doing enough to support working-class families and tackle poverty.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said Reform is appealing to people who are “disillusioned” with government and socially conservative, but left-leaning on economic issues.

“These voters keep trying to vote for change, they’re unhappy with the status quo,” he said, adding that Labour had so far failed to deliver on what voters saw as their core missions, including supporting working people, improving public services and reducing poverty.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer came to office less than a year ago with a huge Labour majority after a decade and a half of Conservative rule. The next election is not expected until 2029.

But he is under intense pressure from his own MPs to scrap a child benefits cap that limits subsidies to two children and to soften contentious welfare reforms.

Farage has vowed to remove the two-child limit — introduced in 2017 by the Tories — in the latest sign his party is pivoting left on some economic issues to capitalise on the local council gains Reform has made in traditionally Labour-voting areas. 

This signals a political shift, as support for Reform — and its predecessor parties, Ukip or The Brexit Party — historically came from disaffected Conservative voters in affluent seats, as well as those who thought the Tories did not go far enough on core issues such as immigration.

The party has nationally become the polling favourite, while support for both Labour and the Tories has sunk since last year’s general election.

About 31 per cent of children in the UK live below the poverty line — defined as household income after housing costs below 60 per cent of the median — making it one of the worst-performing countries in Europe.

Last week the government announced plans to expand eligibility for free school meals, which it estimates will lift about 100,000 children in England out of poverty.

Alex Clegg, economist at the Resolution Foundation, said this would not be enough for the government to achieve its target of significantly reducing child poverty by the end of this parliament.

Scrapping the cap was the “most cost-effective solution”, he said, costing £3.5bn a year by 2029-30 but delivering an almost immediate reduction in poverty and significant long-term economic benefits.

UK child poverty rates are projected to rise to 34 per cent by the end of this parliament — the highest level since Labour was last elected in 1998.

In Scotland, however, poverty is expected to fall because of measures the devolved Holyrood government is taking to mitigate the impact of the cap.

Senior Labour figures, including Starmer and education secretary Bridget Phillipson, are in favour of scrapping the cap, but growing pressure on the public finances is likely to delay any decision until the autumn.

A Labour aide said the party was committed to lifting children out of poverty “unlike Reform, which has no plans to tackle child poverty”.

They added: “We’ve already raised the national minimum wage, extended free school meals, rolled out breakfast clubs and uprated benefits ahead of our ambitious child poverty strategy to be announced later this year.”