Take-Two Interactive Software set to deliver in-line quarter as GTA VI update draws focus

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is set to report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the market close on May 21, with investors expected to focus heavily on commentary surrounding the launch timing of Grand Theft Auto VI.

Wedbush analysts said the earnings call could represent a key “go/no-go” moment for the highly anticipated title, reiterating their ‘Outperform’ rating and $300 price target on the shares ahead of the release. Shares traded hands at $246 on Friday afternoon.

“We expect an in-line print, but the call itself is what matters,” the analysts wrote. “This is the moment investors will know whether GTA VI is still on track for its November 19, 2026, release.”

Wedbush wrote that Rockstar Games historically announces major delays roughly six months before launch, making the upcoming earnings call a critical milestone. The firm believes that if management does not delay the game during the call, its confidence that the November launch date will hold would rise to more than 90%.

The analysts also pointed to a leaked Best Buy affiliate marketing email that appeared to reference GTA VI physical pre-orders potentially going live between May 18 and May 21. While the dates could still shift, Wedbush said the broader implication is significant.

“Best Buy wouldn’t be preparing to launch a pre-order promotional campaign without the go ahead from TTWO which it would only give if it had a high degree of confidence in the November release,” the analysts wrote.

For Q4, Wedbush expects Take-Two to report net bookings and earnings per share at the high end of guidance, forecasting bookings of $1.56 billion and EPS of $0.56. That compares with company guidance of $1.51 billion to $1.56 billion in bookings and EPS of $0.46 to $0.56. Consensus estimates currently stand at $1.552 billion in bookings and $0.57 in EPS.

The firm said mobile performance could provide upside, citing continued strength from titles including Match Factory!, Toon Blast, and Color Block Jam. Wedbush also highlighted Zynga’s newer direct-pay checkout system as a potential driver of higher bookings and margins.

Looking ahead, analysts expect Take-Two management to provide an initial fiscal 2027 outlook during the call, with the structure of that guidance likely to be closely scrutinized by investors.

Wedbush forecasts fiscal 2027 bookings of $9.4 billion and EPS of $6.40, below Wall Street’s EPS consensus of $7.97 due to expected launch-related marketing and amortization expenses tied to GTA VI.

The firm noted its estimates only account for about seven weeks of GTA VI sales before the fiscal year ends on March 31, leaving room for upside depending on pricing, online engagement, and direct-to-consumer sales trends.

The brokerage said recurring revenue opportunities tied to GTA Online, GTA+ subscriptions, and mobile gaming support a higher valuation multiple than in previous console cycles.