As the next electoral battle shifts to Uttar Pradesh, there is a growing buzz within the Bharatiya Janata Party that Union home minister Amit Shah and national general secretary Sunil Bansal could be assigned a more direct role in the state to recalibrate the party’s caste arithmetic ahead of the next assembly polls.
The speculation follows the party’s recent electoral experience and its organisational push in West Bengal, where booth-level management and tight coordination delivered results, powering the party to a big win in the assembly polls and ending the Trinamool Congress’s 15-year reign.
However, within the BJP, there is also recognition that Uttar Pradesh presents a far more complex challenge — one that cannot be addressed by organisational fixes alone.
At present, central leaders BL Santosh and Vinod Tawde are overseeing party affairs in UP. Yet, sections within the organisation feel that the state’s complex caste dynamics may require leaders with deeper electoral experience in UP.
Shah, who played a pivotal role in the BJP’s 2017 assembly victory in UP, and Bansal, credited with building the party’s organisational network in the state, are seen as having that grounding.
“While Amit Shah may start focusing on UP affairs more closely and directly, Sunil Bansal could be made the UP in- charge to prepare the electoral pitch for the party in the state’s most crucial state,” a senior BJP leader said.
The BJP’s dominance in UP was built on a broad social coalition of upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits, backed by a strong Hindutva narrative. Recent elections suggest this coalition is showing signs of strain. The rise of the Samajwadi Party under Akhilesh Yadav, particularly through its PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) plank, has intensified the contest on caste lines.
The 2022 assembly elections offered an early indication, with the BJP facing a strong challenge despite retaining power. Party insiders often argue the contest had tightened significantly in 2022 to much of the party’s concern.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further underlined the shift. The SP won 37 of the state’s 80 seats, expanding its footprint and making visible inroads into sections of the BJP’s support base. The BJP’s tally declined sharply from 62 in 2019 to just 33 seats in 2024.
“The memories of 2022 and 2024 setbacks are still fresh and the party does not want to take any chance or be self-complacent,” another BJP functionary said.
After nearly a decade in power in the state, the BJP is also contending with local anti-incumbency and rising expectations of representation across communities. While its governance narrative centred on welfare schemes, infrastructure and chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s widely acclaimed law and order model remains a key plank, party leaders acknowledge that electoral success in UP will depend on how effectively these translate into renewed social alignment.
The Shah-Bansal duo’s possible deeper involvement may help sharpen execution, but within the BJP there is increasing recognition that the real battle in Uttar Pradesh will be fought not just on narrative, but on the far more intricate terrain of caste equations.
Shashi Kant Pandey, a political scientist, said the BJP had every reason to celebrate its West Bengal victory which he said was very special in many ways.
“But at the same time, the BJP must remember UP is not West Bengal. The caste politics is too complicated in the Hindi heartland and the BJP will have to work hard to rebuild its caste coalition, effectively address local issues and convincingly counter the Opposition’s narrative-something it failed to do in 2024,” he cautioned.
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