A few weeks ago, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Washington’s war on Iran must not become a “stress test” of transatlantic ties. Some off-the-cuff remarks to secondary school pupils may have turned it into exactly that.
Over his first year in power, Merz sought to build a working rapport with Donald Trump, travelling to Washington twice and returning home in March with high praise. “Germany has been terrific,” the US president said. “He is an excellent leader.”
The strategy of careful containment unravelled last week when Merz told pupils in his home region of Sauerland that Tehran was “humiliating” the US.
Trump retorted Merz was “totally ineffective” and should focus on “fixing his broken country”. He then announced plans to withdraw 5,000 US soldiers from Germany this year; scrapped the deployment of long-range missiles seen as central to Nato’s deterrence against Russia; and threatened to raise tariffs on EU cars from 15 per cent to 25 per cent.
The secondary school comments had followed increasingly critical remarks from the chancellor over the Iran war, which has driven up fuel prices and slashed Germany’s 2026 growth forecast in half, to a meagre 0.5 per cent. The higher vehicle tariffs could trim that figure further.
“Merz had tried this precarious tightrope act of not sucking up to Trump while trying to protect German and European interests,” said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. While the chancellor could partly blame himself for triggering the US president’s wrath, cordial relations were destined “to end no matter what”.
The US announcements, notably on its military presence in Europe, did not come as a total surprise for Berlin. But Merz’s strategy had been to buy as much time as possible to allow the continent to rebuild its own defences and avoid glaring security gaps.
With other European leaders — including Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and British premier Sir Keir Starmer — facing similar reckonings with Trump, Europe has few diplomatic levers left two months before Nato’s annual summit in Ankara.
The transatlantic relationship is again a source of “total uncertainty” for Europe’s security and economic prospects, said Laura von Daniels, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin-based think-tank.
“We are back to where we were last year” when Trump had announced tariffs and was threatening to shrink its military footprint in Europe, she said.
The US escalation comes at a tricky time for Merz at home. As he approaches a year in office on May 6, his approval ratings are weak, the economy is sluggish and his coalition is at odds over unpopular welfare reforms.
Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany is polling strongly ahead in elections in eastern states in September, where it is expected to post record results.
“Merz is under severe domestic pressure and might have tried to blame it on the US,” von Daniels said. “It is surprising coming from a traditional transatlanticist.”
Coming on top of the Iran war, a fresh trade dispute could tip Germany into recession, Clemens Fuest, head of the Ifo Institute think-tank, warned at the weekend.
Stefan Bratzel, head of the Center of Automotive Management think-tank, said higher tariffs would make the price of German cars in the US “prohibitive”.
“Transatlantic relations are developing into a major stress test for the German automotive industry,” he said.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates higher car tariffs could shave up to 0.3 points off Germany’s growth in the next 12 months, making an economic downturn “more plausible” if the trade spat escalates further, said Julian Hinz, the group’s trade policy research director.
Merz found support in Social Democratic co-leader Lars Klingbeil, who is vice-chancellor in the coalition. “We really don’t need any advice from Donald Trump right now,” Klingbeil said, adding the US president should focus instead on finding a way to end the conflict.
But many have criticised Merz, known for his straight-talking and impulsive manners, for making things worse.
“Trump has responded to Friedrich Merz’s blunder by threatening to withdraw US troops from Germany,” said Nico Lange, a security expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Trump responds to such remarks with a typical New York reflex: he wants to strike back immediately. He is now doing so by threatening to reduce the US troop presence in Germany. This escalation could have been avoided.”
Criticism came from Merz’s own ranks. Senior CDU MP Roderich Kiesewetter said that while the US had made it clear it wanted to reduce its military presence, “we should not give Trump an incentive for rash actions through public statements”.
He added: “Much more important is that we Europeans make ourselves relevant to the USA again by taking on a fair burden-sharing arrangement for Europe.”
In an editorial, Christoph von Marschall, chief diplomatic correspondent at Berlin’s daily newspaper Tagesspiegel, wrote: “An entire nation is indeed being humiliated — namely the Germans by Trump. He is ruthlessly demonstrating who is dependent on whom.”
In recent days, Berlin has been in damage control mode. “The US presence in Europe is strong and resolute,” insisted a government spokesperson on Monday. “I cannot see in any way that this relationship is not working.”
The chancellor has also sought to limit the fallout. On Sunday evening he stressed in a television interview that it was normal for the US president to hold “different views”, adding that Washington remained an indispensable partner.
He said he and Trump shared “the same goal” about Iran, referring to efforts to prevent Tehran from acquiring the nuclear bomb. He reiterated his willingness to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire.
“I will not give up on the transatlantic relations, I will not give up on Trump,” he added.
But the chancellor also held his ground: “I told him, when you want us to help with such a conflict, ask us beforehand and . . . let’s talk in detail first.”
The episode underscored the limits of any carefully calibrated approach to Trump, analysts said.
“The US president has become so volatile that there is no chance to anticipate his behaviour and act accordingly,” said Andreas Busch, a political scientist. “Dealing with him has elements of a lottery, and this time Merz has not won.”
He added: “The age of strategy with Trump is over, we’re in hand-to-mouth territory.”
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