The April Oil Crisis Most Don’t Know Is Coming

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Living in the United States, Canada, or most of Europe, it’s easy to feel like the world’s problems never quite touch us. We spent the last twenty years watching wars unfold in Iraq and Afghanistan. Because of that, we got used to thinking that conflict in the Middle East just means paying an extra buck or two at the pump.

It is an annoyance, but life goes on, right?

Our parents and grandparents experienced something entirely different. They remember the 1970s oil crisis. They remember the endless lines, the rationing, the hardware stores selling out of locking gas caps, and the terrifying feeling that the entire country was grinding to a halt. 

We like to think those days are ancient history. They aren’t. We can, and almost certainly will, see this exact scenario play out for ourselves very soon.

The 2026 Iran War: What Is Already Guaranteed To Happen

Before I can get to the problems we might face, I need to start by addressing what’s already baked into this situation. It’s worse than most people think!

Let’s start with the basic math of the global supply chain. The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial shipping back on March 2. It’s an active war zone right now. Tankers are literally being attacked and stranded. Insurers won’t issue policies for ships to go through that area. Ship crews wouldn’t want to risk their lives even if expensive insurance was available. Like us, they have families they’d very much like to get home to and you can’t spend money from hazard pay if you’re dead.

We haven’t felt the true pain at the pump from this yet because oceanic shipping is incredibly slow. 

The massive oil tankers that escaped the Gulf right before the shooting started take about 30 to 40 days to cross the ocean to the US. Routes to Europe are likewise sucky now because Iran’s allies have been attacking shipping in Suez, forcing ships to go the long way around Africa. We are currently just burning through that final wave of normal shipments. By mid-April, those last ships will dock. 

Once they unload, the ocean behind them is completely empty. That gap in the global fuel supply is mathematically locked in. Even if Trump and Ayatollah, Junior sign a peace deal today, there’s going to be a gap in fuel supplies putting everyone at least 20% short of what’s needed.

But, hey, the US, Canada, and Mexico produce lots of fuel, right? Can’t we just “Drill, baby, drill!” our way out of the chaos? Sadly, that’s not at all how this works.

For one, gasoline is a globally-priced fuel. When other countries need to cover their shortfalls, do you think Texas oil companies are going to sell cheaper to Americans when someone else will pay them more? Hah! It’s practically against their religion (prosperity gospel) to do something like that. They’ll only sell to you if you’ll pay more than someone else.

Diesel is going to take the worst hit. While domestic supplies and the strategic oil reserve can soften the blow for gasoline, we have to remember that the US only produces light crude. The heavy crude required to make diesel fuel requires buying from places like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These just happen to be the very places that Iran has blocked off right now. Oops.

We are already seeing the national average for unleaded near $3.92 and diesel pushing $5.20, putting us on a highly realistic trajectory toward diesel hitting $8 a gallon almost overnight once the ships stop coming in. Since diesel runs the freight trains and the semi-trucks that restock your local grocery store, the cost of moving goods will become astronomical. And the stakes keep mounting every single day. With 48-hour ultimatums being issued and missiles flying, a quick resolution is off the table.

Things are going to suck for everyone, especially people buying diesel to get to work, for at least 3–4 weeks.

The Not Baked In But Likely Problems

What I outlined above is the best case scenario. Yes, I know it’s really awful, but that’s only the things we’re guaranteed to see. Now, it’s time to take some anti-depressants, because we need to get into the problems we’re likely to see.

Here’s the thing: Even if a magical peace treaty gets signed tomorrow morning, this crisis does not end that day.

Remember the shipping delay we talked about? It’s most likely going to last for months (time the Strait of Hormuz is closed plus 30–40 days). The physical reality of the ocean doesn’t care about diplomacy. It takes up to 40 days for a ship to arrive, but it also takes weeks to send empty ships back, navigate the cleared waterways, load them up, and send them across the globe again. We are looking at a massive logistical hole that will stretch well into the summer and could easily get into the fall or winter if the war doesn’t end.

Plus, we’re now seeing both Trump and Iran threaten to blow up more oil infrastructure. Sunk ships, damaged port facilities, and destroyed pipelines do not get patched up overnight. Some of this damage takes years to fix, meaning the global oil market will be artificially constrained for a very long time. Don’t expect prices to fall back to normal any time soon. The recovery will be slow and likely never be complete.

It Can Easily Get A Lot Worse

Now that we’ve been through the problems that are locked in and the problems that are likely, we need to explore the things that can easily go wrong and make things even worse.

For one, human psychology is going to pour gasoline on this fire. The moment the general public realizes the ocean is empty in April and shortages are real, panic buying will trigger. It will be the Colonial Pipeline hack on steroids. People will hoard fuel, and the local pumps will physically run dry in a matter of hours. If diesel prices are bad enough, there will be challenges getting more fuel into the tanks that feed the pumps because independent drivers might not be able to afford to drive. This will hit small towns harder than bigger cities.

But the geopolitical picture is even darker. We are talking about the potential destruction of 20 percent of the global oil supply. 

Iran is threatening to wipe out desalination plants and regional energy grids if their own infrastructure gets hit. They just fired ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, proving they have a 4,000 kilometer range that puts major European capitals and critical allied bases in the crosshairs. If Israel feels threatened badly enough (missiles are running out), nuclear weapons are even on the table. 

With China sitting back and letting the US bleed itself dry in a Middle Eastern quagmire, we are sleepwalking right up to the edge of World War 3. Again, though, we’re talking about things that are still potentially avoidable here. 

Cover Your Ass Now

You need to protect yourself and your family right now. I’m not talking about doomsday prep. I’m talking about preparing for things that are happening next month no matter what.

The second the reality of this supply shock hits the evening news, every remotely affordable EV is going to vanish from dealer lots. If you have been waiting to make the switch, you need to do it today. When the diesel crunch hits, an EV in the driveway isn’t going to care what the spot price of crude is. So, go get one in your driveway.

But it doesn’t stop at cars. Look into getting even a little portable solar setup for your house. Do whatever you can to generate your own power locally so you aren’t completely helpless when the grid gets stressed in some areas. Having a backup plan for the absolute worst is important.

Finally, have a serious talk with your extended family about getting off oil. We have to stop relying on a vulnerable, global supply chain that requires constant warfare just to function. Unplug from their system and cover your ass before it completely breaks down!

Featured image by US Department of Defense (Public Domain). Our use of DoD imagery does not imply or constitute endorsement.