Gold Holds Firm Near $5,000 as Fed Split and Middle East Risk Lift Safe-Haven Demand

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.

Here’s what you need to know:

1. Thin holiday liquidity and broad liquidation pressure pushed gold to a weekly low near $4,860 before buyers stepped back in and rebuilt positions.

2. Fed meeting minutes reinforced a split committee, keeping rate-cut expectations in play and helping gold stay well-supported around the $5,000 level.

3. Rising geopolitical risk helped trigger a risk-off bid late in the week, lifting gold back above $5,000 and toward a potential ~$5,100 close.

4. Soft Q4 GDP and a Supreme Court ruling against the Trump tariff strategy could shift next week’s focus to Fed speak and White House messaging.

It has not been all that long, on a reasonable scale, since a stretch of trading like the last 4-5 days would be considered a wild one for the gold market, with spot prices moving around a range wider than $150/oz.

Within the context of the last 18 months, however, this week has been a relatively calm one, although it does appear to have been another stretch of healthy consolidation at a very elevated price point.

Trading volumes were markedly lower on Monday due to the US President’s Day holiday, which left most American trade desks with light coverage and minimum activity.

While the number of trades placed on the day was well below normal, the clear consensus trade was to resume some of the liquidation trend we saw last week. The downward pressure that might otherwise have been thought of as negligible had an outsized impact on the yellow metal, with spot prices falling throughout Monday to the weekly low point near $4860/oz.

Gold did not pause at the nadir for long, however, as the return of US desks to the market brought back a flush of investors and managers still keen to reopen or upsize positions at the start of the week.

Whether because of a view that the week’s upcoming macro data would further the argument for the FOMC to resume lowering interest rates sooner, or a more fundamental hedge against geopolitical and trade instability across the globe (as we’ll see, both turned out to be appropriate calls), Tuesday’s trading resulted in a strong rally for gold spot prices which once again moved just above $5000 and would only modestly correct back below over the next two sessions.