Analyst trims Coinbase price target after market wipeout

By mid-day on Feb. 6, the fog of uncertainty had begun to lift. Both cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities staged a solid rebound.

But Wall Street strategists aren’t rushing back in just yet.

Citibank has dialed back its expectations for Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN), citing persistent volatility and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. crypto regulation.

Related: Crypto stocks rally up to 25% after big relief

Founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, Coinbase remains the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange.

Coinbase grabbed attention last year for backing the U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Framework, a bill aimed at clarifying crypto regulations.

But when Sen. Tim Scott unveiled a new draft version, the exchange balked. Finding several provisions unfavorable, Coinbase ultimately withdrew its support.

At press time, COIN was trading 11.38% higher at $162.76 as Bitcoin made its journey up towards $70,000.

Still, the stock is 93% below its all-time high of $444 set in July 2025. Year to date, COIN is down 31.12%, extending a 39.74% slide over the past 12 months.

Adding to the tension, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest sold more than $19 million worth of Coinbase shares on Feb. 5, just days after adding to its position.

In a note to clients, Citigroup analysts trimmed their price target to $400 from $505, as reported by CoinDesk. The analysts cited weaker trading volumes, reduced institutional flows, and stalled crypto legislation.

The new target still means a potential doubling from COIN’s recent close at $146. Analysts reiterated a “Buy/High Risk” rating, calling Coinbase the “category leader” and a likely beneficiary of future crypto reform.

However, the path to that recovery may take time. Citi now expects Senate negotiations on the market structure bill to drag into 2026, delaying clarity for digital asset companies.

Coinbase plans to release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results after the close on Feb. 12.

Ahead of it, Citi’s team, led by Peter Christiansen, cut its fourth quarter net revenue forecast by about 10% to $1.69 billion, roughly 4% below market consensus.

Factoring in a $2.3 billion mark-to-market decline on Coinbase’s crypto holdings and its equity stake in Circle, analysts now expect a GAAP loss of $2.64 per share for the quarter.