BOJ debated chances of resuming rate hikes, July summary shows

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) -Bank of Japan policymakers debated the likelihood of resuming interest rate increases with one signaling the chance of a hike this year, a summary of opinions at the July meeting showed, heightening the chance of a near-term rise in borrowing costs.

While several board members warned of uncertainty over the fallout from U.S. tariffs, one welcomed Japan’s trade deal with the U.S. as “great progress” that heightened the likelihood of achieving the BOJ’s forecast, the summary showed on Friday.

Some in the board also warned of mounting inflationary pressure in a hawkish tilt underscoring a growing view within the central bank that conditions for raising Japan’s still-low rates costs could fall into place in coming months.

“The balance within the board seems to be tilting more hawkish,” which reinforces the chance of another rate hike this year, Daiwa Securities analysts wrote in a research note.

At the July 30-31 meeting, the BOJ kept rates steady at 0.5% but revised up its inflation forecasts and offered a less gloomy outlook on the economy, keeping alive market expectations for a rate hike this year.

The BOJ needed “at least two to three more months” to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs, another opinion showed, adding the impact on Japan’s economy could remain “minimal” if the U.S. economy withstands the hit better than initially thought.

“In that case, it may be possible for the Bank to exit from its current wait-and-see stance, perhaps as early as the end of this year,” the member, whose identity was not disclosed, was quoted as saying.

A few others in the nine-member board also signaled the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes.

The BOJ must continue to raise rates when possible because its policy rate, at 0.5%, is below levels considered neutral to the economy, one opinion showed, adding that the bank should not become overly cautious and “miss the opportunity” to hike.

“It’s important to raise rates in a timely manner” to avoid being forced to hike rapidly later and inflict huge damage to the economy, another opinion showed.

The hawkish signals weighed on Japanese government bonds (JGB), with the yield on the 10-year note rising 0.5 basis point to 1.49% on Friday.

Some policymakees warned of growing inflationary risks, with one opinion saying the BOJ is “now at a phase where it needs to place more emphasis on the upside risks to prices”, the summary showed.

“Inflation expectations seem to have reached 2% and there’s concern they will rise further,” another opinion showed, adding that Japan may meet the BOJ’s price goal earlier than expected.