Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Sentimental Value”
Warner Bros.
Oscars Best Supporting Actor Commentary (Updated Oct. 2, 2025): Stellan Skarsgård still holds the top spot for his performance in “Sentimental Value.” Sean Penn follows closely behind for his villainous role in Paul Thomas Anderson’s awards frontrunner “One Battle After Another,” which is expected to rack up a major haul of nominations across multiple categories.
Paul Mescal is not far behind with his turn as William Shakespeare in “Hamnet,” although his category placement has yet to be confirmed. Netflix makes a strong case with two contenders in the mix: the long overdue Adam Sandler for Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly” and, although brief, William H. Macy makes an undeniable impression in Clint Bentley’s “Train Dreams.”
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed category classifications are subject to change.
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