Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Orwell: 2+2 = 5
Courtesy of Neon
Oscars Best Documentary Feature Commentary (Updated Nov. 11, 2025): As the documentary race comes into sharper focus with DOC NYC ahead, and the Critics Choice Documentary Awards just announced, it’s clear this year’s lineup is as politically charged and emotionally resonant as ever.
At the top of the field, Geeta Gandbhir’s “The Perfect Neighbor” has established itself as the early frontrunner. Fresh off its CCA triumph — where it claimed best documentary feature, director, editing, archival documentary and best true crime documentary — the Netflix release has cemented its status as both a critical and popular favorite. Gandbhir’s gripping exploration of “stand your ground” laws through police bodycam footage has positioned the film as the kind of urgent, socially conscious storytelling that the branch tends to reward.
Not far behind is Laura Poitras’ “Cover-Up,” another Netflix acquisition, and a cerebral and fiercely investigative work examining journalist Seymour Hersh’s lifelong pursuit of truth. Poitras, an Oscar winner for “Citizenfour,” is no stranger to the Academy, and this latest effort could easily return her to the winner’s circle.
PBS is in strong contention with Mstyslav Chernov’s “2000 Meters to Andriivka,” a harrowing follow-up to his Oscar-winning “20 Days in Mariupol.” The film’s inclusion in DOC NYC’s Short List section, where 13 of the last 14 Oscar winners have appeared, only strengthens its case.
HBO’s “The Alabama Solution,” from Andrew Jarecki, brings another socially conscious angle, examining systemic failures in the American justice system. A CCA winner for best political documentary, helps bolsters its campaign as one of the year’s most urgent entries.
Apple is betting big on “Come See Me in the Good Light,” a tender and deeply human portrait from director Ryan White and producer Tig Notaro chronicling the love and resilience of two poets facing terminal illness. It continues to build quiet but meaningful momentum after positive receptions that began at Sundance.
Watch out for Neon’s “Orwell: 2+2=5,” directed by Raoul Peck and co-produced by Alex Gibney. The philosophical essay film — which won CCA honors for best score and narration — merges historical insight with contemporary urgency, drawing parallels between Orwell’s warnings and today’s modern political doublespeak.
As DOC NYC kicks off its 16th edition, the race for best documentary feature feels a bit wide open. With heavyweights from Netflix, PBS, HBO and Neon all in play, the question may not be which film wins — but which kind of film, Academy voters will choose to honor this year.
NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed and credited producers are subject to change.
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Eligible Films (Documentary Feature)
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