100% Electric Vehicles = 20% Of New Car Sales In Europe In January

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The European passenger plugin vehicle market scored 298,000 registrations in January, a progression of 22% YoY. Positively, BEVs (195,000 units, +16% YoY) continued to grow despite the drop in EV incentives in certain markets. But the highlight of the month was plugin hybrids (PHEVs), as they jumped 33% year over year (YoY) to some 102,000 units, or 10% share of the total market, which is their highest growth rate in January since 2021. A good omen for the rest of the year?

While plugins were up, the overall market had a slow month (-4% YoY, to a little less than one million units), starting 2026 BEV share at a strong 20%, higher than the 17% of last year, the 12% of January 2024, and the 10% of the previous year. This means that the BEV share doubled in just three years. So … will we see 40% BEV share in January 2029? And 80% in January 2032? One can only dream….

Regarding other powertrains, while petrol (-26% YoY) and diesel (-22% YoY) are in freefall (at this pace, expect diesel new car sales to end around 2029…), plugless hybrids are (still) rising, going up from 35% share in January 2025, to their current 39% share.

Also, this meant that 69% of all passenger vehicles sold in January in Europe were electrified (to some degree), robust growth from the 59% score of a year ago. At this pace, expect all new car sales in Europe to be electrified, in some form, by 2030.

Still, expect the 20% BEV share to be a baseline, with the BEV market increasing its share throughout the year and ending the year close to 25% share.

In January, we got a very diverse top 5, with five different OEMs represented, coming from five different countries. A sign of things to come?

Bring on the popcorn, because the next few months will surely be fun to watch!

Looking at the monthly model ranking:

#1 Renault 5 / Alpine A290 — After a thrilling race with the #2 Skoda Elroq and #3 BYD Seal U (all three ended separated by just 102 units), the French twins started the year with a win, scoring 8,165 registrations last month, which allowed them to start in the lead. Sure, do not expect this lead to last — besides the threat of the aforementioned Czech and Chinese models, in March, expect the Tesla Model Y coming all guns blazing into #1. BUT. A podium result is surely on the cards in 2025, and maybe the French EVs could have a shot at displacing the Skoda Elroq from the runner-up spot, improving on its bronze medal achieved in 2025.

#2 Skoda Elroq — The 8,103 deliveries of January didn’t allow it to start the year in the leadership spot, but this is nevertheless a good score. But with the upcoming sibling, the very promising Epiq small crossover, landing in the second half of the year, one wonders if the Czech model will continue to be a frequent presence on the podium. Having been second place in 2025, Skoda’s crossover will have to work hard to stay on the podium, not only because of the Epiq’s internal competition, but also because the external competition is becoming ever more fierce.

#3 BYD Seal U (BEV+PHEV) — The Chinese SUV hit 8,063 registrations last month, meaning that while the BYD veteran star is already fading in China (it was only 9th in its home market this month), in Europe it is still podium material (a bit like when veteran football/soccer players #ahem# Cristiano Ronaldo #ahem# leave the top leagues and semi-retire in less competitive leagues…). January’s third place finish was much thanks to generous discounts, but still, with the model’s development costs now well behind it, BYD can afford to go into hard discount territory with this one.

#4 Tesla Model Y — The made-in-Germany crossover was 4th in January, with 6,941 registrations, up 19% YoY (but down 39% compared to January ’24). With the refreshed version still fresh, the Model Y is still hanging on, something that the Model 3 cannot say (with 1,041 units, it had its worst result since July ’22). Tesla will try to keep its crossover in the top positions for as long as it can. However, while the Model Y should keep its best seller crown this year, the Model 3 will have a hard time staying in the top 5.

#5 BMW X1 PHEV / iX1 — With the Neue Klasse BEVs high on BMW’s priorities list, one could be forgiven for forgetting that BMW already has a couple of volume selling EV models. And the best of them are the X1 PHEV / iX1 duo, both based on the X1 ICE model. The truth is that the compact SUV twins hit 6,678 registrations last month, allowing them to join the top 5. With a deep, Neue-Klasse-inspired refresh coming this year, expect the twins to continue selling in large numbers. How large? Hard to say at the moment, but if the refresh is anything as successful as the upcoming iX3, then we might be talking about podium material, or at least a top 5 presence.

Just outside the top 5, a mention is due for the Volkswagen Group train behind the frontrunners, with four representatives (Skoda Enyaq, VW ID.3, VW ID.7, and VW ID.4) between the 6th position and the 9th position, as well as the Audi Q4 in 11th and the Audi Q6 in 13th — which, added to the 2nd position of the Skoda Elroq, places 7 Volkswagen Group models in the top 13 spots. Wow. That’s BYD level of domination there….

The other highlights are the BMW 5 Series PHEV/i5 twins, which jumped into the 12th position, winning the full size category. All while the Mercedes CLA EV continued to ride its wave of success, collecting another top 20 spot, this time in 14th.

Regarding new faces, the Citroen e-C3 EV is back on the table, at #15, as it seems that Stellantis now actually wants to sell the model. The refreshed Toyota BZ4X joined the top 20, in 18th. (Is the Japanese giant waking up in Europe?). Also, as a bit of a surprise, this time Renault placed a second model on the table, with the Scenic crossover sneaking in at #19. Is the success virus spreading in Renault’s lineup?

Outside the top 20, the highlight was the Chinese Jaecoo 7 PHEV, which ended the month in 21st, only some 30 units behind the #20 Hyundai Tucson PHEV. This proves that it’s not only MG, BYD, and Geely that are winning in the European market. Other, smaller Chinese players are gaining ground in Europe as well, and with overall sales stagnating, these conquest sales are at the expense of someone….

Looking at the highlights from the mainstream brands ranking, the best performer was #20 BYD, which grew 173% YoY to close to 18,000 sales. While the Shenzhen OEM is faltering in its domestic market, in Europe the picture is quite different, ending the month fewer than 1,000 units behind MG, China’s longstanding sales champion in Europe, and 10,000 units ahead of #27 Tesla(!), which dropped by 17% YoY.

Expect BYD to beat both brands this year, becoming Europe’s biggest market disruptor.

On the losers side, we have three surprises, with #14 Dacia dropping by 35% YoY (already a victim of an ICE melting event?), and the Koreans Kia (9th, down 19% YoY) and Hyundai (10th, down 20%) dropping as well. These changes do not seem to have an easy explanation. Is this a blip? Something to check out in the coming months.

In the EV manufacturer ranking, Volkswagen has kept the leadership position, but it has started out from a lower base than 12 months ago. In January 2025, it had 11.1% share. This January it was at 9.7%. I mean, it’s still good, but the VW ID.Tiguan and ID.Polo are needed to ramp up volumes if the German make wants to end this year with the same share it ended 2025 (11%).

BMW (7.3%) started the year in its usual position, the runner-up spot, followed by the biggest surprise of the top 5. BYD seemingly came out of nowhere and jumped into 3rd place! Germans (and everyone else), beware. BYD has officially became a force to be reckoned with in Europe, succeeding Tesla in that role.

Speaking of the Texan make, Tesla (2.7% share, down from 4% in January ’25) continues to slide into irrelevance, to the point that it’s no longer even the #1 US EV maker in Europe! A slowly progressing Ford (3.6% share in January) has managed to overtake it! Sure, Tesla should bounce big in March and should surpass Ford by then, but … currently, Tesla has been relegated to competing with Ford for a position in the pack. Leadership positions are now a distant memory for the US brand.

Outside the top 5, the highlight is #7 Renault (5.4%, up from 4% in January ’25), which is looking to surpass an also progressing #6 Skoda (5.7%) to try to join the top 5 sometime this year.

As for OEMs, Volkswagen Group started the year in front (unsurprising, really) with 26.4% market share. With almost all brands from Volkswagen Group posting strong results in the EV category, Volkswagen Group will try to keep its market share between 25–30%…. Do you think this will be possible?

Stellantis (10.4%, up from 9.5% in January ’25) is the new #2, having replaced BMW Group (8.9%) in that position. The German OEM is waiting for volume deployment of its new iX3 to have another shot at the second spot.

With Stellantis all over the place, trying on one hand to actively sell its EVs while at the same time (re)introducing diesel versions of a few of its models (that brand new, and growing, technology…), BMW is set to recover runner-up status from the multinational conglomerate.

Hyundai–Kia (8%) started the year in 4th, but it will need to keep a close eye on #5 BYD (6.9%). Thanks to success stories in less media-friendly markets (in January alone, it had 1,000 sales in Azerbaijan, 1,000 in Ireland, 600 in Poland, 500 in Portugal, 500 in Ukraine, and 400 in Albania), it is jumping positions and could become a podium candidate already this year!

Below those OEMs, and in a reverse scenario of what is happening in China, Geely (6.7%, down from 8.6% in January ’25) is experiencing the opposite dynamic as BYD. It is losing significant share in Europe. In January, Geely suffered from Volvo’s slow start, but regardless of that, Geely needs a volume brand to shore up its market share. The namesake brand will need to be quickly deployed in Europe, and its lineup expanded — namely with models like the small Xingyuan, set to be called the EX2 in Europe.